CL Redux

March 14, 2011, 11:05 a.m. EDT
Fed buys $7.56 bln in Treasurys; bonds stay up

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $7.56 billion in Treasury bonds on Monday, as part of a program that is the centerpiece of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Dealers offered the Fed $24.6 billion debt maturing from 2018 through 2021. After the buyback, Treasurys held onto gains. Yields on U.S. 10-year notes (U.S.:UST10Y) , which move inversely to prices, fell 6 basis points to 3.34%

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-straddles-100-a-barrel-with-focus-on-japan-2011-03-13

1/ Prices were overbought last week and even with the recently lowered prices “we feel in our hearts that it would be best to wait before doing any fresh buying, but our heads tell us we should use dips to hedge at least half our needs,” analysts at Cameron Hanover said in a note to clients Monday.

The buying urgency has diminished after the lack of bloodshed in Saudi Arabia on Friday, they added.

2/ Monday’s decline came as Japan struggled to deal with the aftermath of the worst-ever earthquake recorded in the nation’s history, estimated to have killed thousands and caused widespread damage, especially in northern Japan.

Analysts at UBS, however, see a minimal impact to the “global crude-oil balance.” They said that the earthquake had affected 12 nuclear plants with about 11,270 megawatts of capacity, which may remain shut for an extended period in view of the damage caused by the temblor.

That would boost demand for other fuel sources in due course, especially for natural gas and oil, UBS estimated. Even so, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could meet incremental oil demand from its spare capacity.

“Higher oil demand for electricity generation may be offset by demand loss from refinery shut-ins and economic weakness,” UBS analysts said. They noted that at least five refineries with a combined capacity of about 26% of Japan’s total capacity were shut down in the wake of the earthquake.

Despite the attention toward the tragedy unfolding in Japan, events in the Mideast and North Africa remain a “much more important driver of oil balances and price,” analysts at J. P. Morgan said in a note to clients Monday.

On Monday, pro-government forces in Libya advanced in rebel-held areas in the east as the tide appears to have turned in favor of Col. Moammar Gadhafi.

 

double top approaching around 100.60 area

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...711680);EXPMA(50,16711<br /futures/CLJ11#jump

 

Saudi troops sent into Bahrain
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/2011314124928850647.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5754805a-4e44-11e0-a9fa-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Gb8KOd1n


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http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/markets-energy-nymex-idUSN1431639020110314

1/ Middle East
<< this seems providing support for oil prices >>>

* Heavy gunfire was heard south of the Yemen capital and soldiers deployed in force in Sanaa itself, with a new wave of rallies reported across the country demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh quit.

* Gulf states were sending troops into the troubled island state of Bahrain in a move Shi'ite opponents of the Saudi-allied, Sunni Muslim rulers of the Gulf kingdom said would be a declaration of war.

* About 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain to protect government facilities following unrest by the country's Shi'ite Muslim majority, a Saudi official source said.


2/ Libya

* France stepped up efforts to persuade world powers to impose a no-fly zone over Libya, as Muammar Gaddafi's troops battled rebel fighters for control of the strategic oil town of Brega.


3. Japan

* Japan will move quickly to import more liquefied natural gas and
low-sulfur fuels to generate power at thermal plants and replace nuclear electricity supplies put out of action following the earthquake.

 

Sold 3 CL's 100.85 1st stop 101.43

 

Sonnavabitch. We're right back to the high. It does make you sick when you get stopped out three times in a row (on the long side) only to see this happen.

I will be pissed if we head straight up to 103.

 

Watch out. If we clear 101.50, the bears might panic in earnest.

 

If you long at anytime today and hold, you are in profit.

Stop is for the weak and feable-minded. Tough guys don't use stop.

 

please read rules at the beginning of the thread, this forum maintains certain decency in posting , one has to be careful while posting commenting on other people views

 

knew it, now short