That really depends on how big the damage is. If the scope is so huge that it can potentially drag the entire economy down the gutter, then that would be bearish.
Japan Earthquake: Impact on Crude Oil, Fuel and Nuclear Power http://www.favstocks.com/japan-earthquake-impact-on-crude-oil-fuel-and-nuclear-power/1336774/ While thereâs not one_easy answer, a good place to start is to_review_some oil barrel statistics of Japan. Japan Imports part reduced by damaged refinery = 1.6% of World Demand ( 1.4 mil bod ) Based on the U.S. EIA data, Japan imported 4.7 million barrels a day (bpd) in 2009, with total oil refining capacity of 4.6 million bpd at 29 facilities as of January 2010. According to Reuters, the six_refineries_that are shut down have_a total capacity of 1.40 million barrels per day (bpd)._ Thatâs_about 1.6% of the 89.3 million bbl/d global 2011 product demand forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA). While Japan is the second-largest net importer of oil in the world after the United States in 2009, the_ estimated import disruptions_due to_the earthquake does not appear significant enough to sway worldâs crude oil market._ China Trade Deficit â Major Catalyst From various indications, the drop of crude price after Japanâs earthquake_could be partly attributed to the_ knee-jerking reaction to a devastating natural disaster, some risk-off profit taking, USO starting its rollover on March 8, and the fizzled âDay of Rageâ protest in Saudi Arabia. However, the major catalyst for the downward pressure on crude oil before and after_the Japan earthquake was the_surprise trade deficit numberâ$7.3 billion, the largest in 7 yearsâcoming out of China signaling an possible economic slowdown. Japan to Increase Energy Imports after the quake On the other hand, since about_25% of Japanâs electricity is coming from nuclear, the resulted power shortage due to closures of a dozen nuclear reactors after the quake_suggests Japan will likely need to increase its imports of petroleum_products and other energy sources (See Chart)._
. Merrill McPeak views on no fly zone - a former Air Force chief of staff. He flew more than 6,000 hours, half in fighter aircraft, and helped oversee no-fly zones in Iraq and the Adriatic http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/opinion/10kristof.html âI canât imagine an easier military problem,â he said. âIf we canât impose a no-fly zone over a not even third-rate military power like Libya, then we ought to take a hell of a lot of our military budget and spend it on something usable.â He continued: âJust flying a few jets across the top of the friendlies would probably be enough to ground the Libyan Air Force, which is the objective.â General McPeak added that there would be no need to maintain 24/7 coverage over Libya. As long as the Libyan Air Force knew that there was some risk of interception, its pilots would be much less motivated to drop bombs and more inclined to defect. âIf we canât do this, what can we do?â he asked, adding: âI think it would have a real impact. It might change their calculation of who might come out on top. Just the mere announcement of this might have an impact.â Along with a no-fly zone, another important step would be to use American military aircraft to jam Libyan state television and radio propaganda and Libyan military communications. General McPeak said such jamming would be âdead easy.â As he acknowledged, any intervention also has unforeseeable risks, and, frankly, itâs a good thing when a president counts to 10 before taking military action. But I hope that President Obama isnât counting to a googolplex.
<< - It may take few months ( they have to wait for small after shock earth quakes periods to pass which is months ) at least to test nuclear plants and re-start production - major cities like Tokyo use oil to run power generators for a month at least when they face these shortages >>> http://www.deccanherald.com/content/145458/japan-govt-warns-electricity-shortage.htm lJapan govt warns of electricity shortage Tokyo, Mar 13, (AFP) : The shutdown of several nuclear reactors after a massive earthquake struck Japan Friday may lead to a shortfall in electricity supply and will make power outages necessary, the government warned today. Such scheduled blackouts are expected to continue for several weeks, Tetsuhiro Hosono, chief of the agency, told a press conference. He added Tepco was expected to be about 25 per cent short of its normal power supply for the time of year. The Japanese nuclear industry provides around 30 per cent of Japan's power needs. In total, 11 of the roughly 50 nuclear reactors in Japan, located in the worst affected areas, shut down following the earthquake.
Japan to move decisively against speculation: WSJ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boj-to-move-decisively-against-speculation-wsj-2011-03-13 SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of Japan has made 55 billion yen ($671.7 million) available to financial institutions in areas hit by the massive earthquake on Friday, according to Kyodo News. In addition, the Japanese government said Sunday that they will move decisively to combat speculative moves when the markets open Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported. Economy minister Kaoru Yosano said at a press conference on Sunday "we can't tolerate" any moves by speculators trying to profit from the earthquake by short-selling, the paper reported. ------ http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/13/news/international/bank_of_japan_earthquake/index.htm?hpt=T1 The head of the Japanese Central Bank, Masaaki Shirakawa, told reporters that the Bank of Japan stood ready to "provide markets with a lot of liquidity first thing tomorrow morning," according to numerous news reports. The aim is to make sure the banks have enough cash on hand to meet demands of panicky investors and cover withdrawal demands of bank customers.
There are a lot of cross currents right now especially. IV does a nice job of laying these out for us. And Kid, schizo, and I, and others contribute. Lost my internet connection again the last couple of hours and see now I missed a nice selloff. Oh, well. Let's see what happens with the Nikkei today, and see if they can prop it up. ADD As I was typing this TF shot up 8 points in about a minute and then dropped back. And all of the index futures did the same. Hmmm.
March 13, 2011, 7:23 p.m. EDT Australian shares drop sharply after Japan quake SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Australian shares fell sharply on Monday, with nuclear-energy related shares taking a hit as Japan continues to work to avoid meltdown at its nuclear reactors in the wake of Friday's massive earthquake. The S&P/ASX 200 index lost 0.9% to trade at 4,603.20. Of nuclear-sector firms, Paladin Energy Ltd. (AUSTRALIAN:AUDN) shares fell 8.5%, Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (AUSTRALIAN:AU:ERA) shares fell 7.5% while Extract Resources Ltd. (AUSTRALIAN:AU:EXT) shares fell 6.6%. More broadly, insurer QBE Insurance Group Ltd. (AUSTRALIAN:AU:QBE) (PINK:QBEIF) , shares fell 1%, while diversified mining group BHP Billiton Ltd. (AUSTRALIAN:AU:BHP) (NYSE:BHP) shares fell 1.4%
Careful everyone. Drum roll....................... ADD 8:01p BREAKING Japan's Topix falls 2.1% to 896.63 in early moves BREAKING Japan's Nikkei Average down 2.1% at 10,044.1 ADD 2 Japan's Nikkei Average futures plunge 4.3% in opening minutes on Singapore exchange
I'm backing off for now. Too unpredictable for me. I'll give it a go in the morning. As I just mentioned there are soooooo many cross currents right now. Wishing the Japanese people all the best with their nuclear disasters and everything else. What a horrible tragedy they're dealing with. I understand that California has been taking readings up and down the coast to see if any of the radiation makes it over here.