EIA short term energy outlook -------------------------------- http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/120...as-market-awaits-the-eia-inventory-report.htm EIA has raised its forecast for the average cost of crude oil to refiners to $105 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than in the previous Outlook. However, EIA has raised its 2011 forecast for WTI by only $9 per barrel to $102 per barrel because of the projected continued price discount for this type of crude compared with other crudes. _Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview. EIA expects continued tightening of world oil markets over the next two years, particularly in light of the recent events in North Africa and the Middle East, the world's largest oil producing region. The current situation in Libya increases oil market uncertainty because, according to various reports, much of the country's 1.8-million bbl/d total liquids production has been shut in and it is unclear how long this situation will continue. The market remains concerned that the unrest in the region could continue to spread. There are many reasons for market uncertainty that could push oil prices higher or lower than current expectations. Among the uncertainties are: the continued unrest in producing countries and its potential impact on supply; decisions by key OPEC member countries regarding their production response to the global recovery in oil demand and recent supply losses; the rate of economic recovery, both domestically and globally; fiscal issues facing national and sub-national governments; and China's efforts to address concerns regarding its growth and inflation rates. _Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption. World crude oil and liquid fuels consumption grew by an estimated 2.4 million bbl/d in 2010 to 86.7 million bbl/d, the second largest annual increase in at least 30 years. This growth more than offset the reductions in demand during the prior two years and surpassed the 2007 consumption level of 86.3 million bbl/d. EIA expects that world liquid fuels consumption will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2011 and by an additional 1.7 million bbl/d in 2012. Non-OECD countries will make up almost all of the growth in consumption over the next 2 years, with the largest demand increases coming from China, Brazil, and the Middle East. EIA expects that, among the OECD regions, only North America will show growth in oil consumption over the next two years, offsetting declines in OECD Europe and Asia. _Non-OPEC Supply. EIA projects that non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels production will increase by 170,000 bbl/d in 2011, then decline slightly in 2012. Increases in non-OPEC oil production during 2011 will be concentrated in a few countries, particularly China and Brazil, where EIA expects annual average production growth of 140,000 and 170,000 bbl/d, respectively. In 2012, EIA expects Canadian production growth to average 170,000 bbl/d while China and Brazil grow by 140,000 and 110,000 bbl/d, respectively. Other non-OPEC production is expected to decline. EIA expects that Mexico's production will fall by about 220,000 bbl/d in 2011, followed by a further decline of 80,000 bbl/d in 2012. Similarly, production from the North Sea will fall by 210,000 bbl/d and 170,000 bbl/d in 2011 and 2012, respectively. EIA expects the former Soviet Union republics to increase production by 320,000 bbl/d in 2011, followed by a production decrease of 180,000 bbl/d in 2012 mainly driven by decreases in Russia, whose West Siberian fields are expected to decline significantly. Projected U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels production declines by 100,000 bbl/d in 2011 and by a further 160,000 bbl/d in 2012. _OPEC Supply. EIA expects that lost crude oil production from Libya will be made up for by both drawdown of inventories and increases in production from other OPEC countries. Forecast OPEC crude oil and non-crude liquids production increase by 0.1 million bbl/d and by 0.7 million bbl/d in 2011, respectively. Continuing growth in global demand for oil and limited growth in supplies originating from non-OPEC countries contribute to an increase in OPEC crude oil production of 1.9 million bbl/d in 2012. EIA expects growth in OPEC non-crude liquids production to slow to 0.3 million bbl/d in 2012. EIA has revised its projected OPEC surplus capacity downward, compared with the last Outlook, as assumptions underlying these projections changed in light of the unrest in Libya. As a result, EIA projects that OPEC surplus capacity will fall from an average 4.4 million bbl/d in 2010 to 4.1 million bbl/d in 2011, followed by a further decline to 3.1 million bbl/d in 2012. _OECD Petroleum Inventories. Onshore commercial oil inventories in the OECD countries remained high in 2010, but reports indicate that floating oil storage fell sharply. EIA expects that OECD onshore inventories will decline over the forecast period. Projected OECD stocks fall by about 111 million barrels in 2011, followed by an additional 38 million barrel decline in 2012. Days of supply (total inventories divided by average daily consumption) drops from a relatively high 57 days at the end of 2010 to 55 days by the end of 2011, which is close to the middle of the previous 5-year range.
These are 2 really great posts IV, coming from someone that knows what they're talking about. Thanks for helping to clarify my point. When I used "biases" I did mean that in the narrower sense of trading off of the underlying fundamentals. I wasn't using it in the sense of looking at "Channels/Chart" patterns. And also I'm not saying don't have some sense of what's up fundamentally, I'm just saying make sure PA confirms our ideas, and if it doesn't then be open to realizing we may have the wrong take. And your posting a large volume of relevant info on what's up with CL is really very helpful. And it's much appreciated. And I try to contribute to that to as do other people posting on this thread. Group effort here. Helping one another. Always where it's at. FWIW some of my own hesitation to pull the trigger on any trades in CL comes partly from my own newness at trading the contract. It's way more volatile than anything else I've traded. So I'm still learning it and the best way to enter and exit positions. Just being cautious, maybe overly so right now. But familiarity and trading success breeds confidence. You have to stick your toe in the water and then see how it goes. And one other thing is I don't post all of my trades here. Sometimes I'm too busy or trading some other instrument. So posting those trades wouldn't be appropriate here. I really like this type of interaction. This is how we help one another become better traders. Thanks for your posts.
Brent crude oil surge rattles economic outlook http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...ommodities-idUSTRE7287I520110309?pageNumber=1 - Copper prices, often viewed as a gauge of the economic outlook due to the metal's use in construction and power generation, fell almost 3 percent as traders fretted that surging Brent crude could hurt the economy. - Investors have been trimming positions in grain markets as the surge in oil has raised concerns of slowing global deman
A couple of trades, net +25 so far today (a winner of 35 points, a loser of 10). Currently short at 445, stop at b/e.