schizo, I suspect it was the same as what I did many, many, many times. If you want to express your thoughts/frustration/pain, pm me. If it was your normal stop, forget it.
Thanks for your offer, but I think I'll resort to licking the wound on my own over this weekend. The stop was initially placed at 105.27, but I know it's just a matter of time before I get stopped out considering how bullish Sunday nights can be. But the main reason I trashed my position was I screwed up and I didn't want to foster any idiotic hope that there just might be a reversal.
Sorry about that bro. Damn. That's always tough to swallow those kind of losses. I was thinking about you several times in the last few hours. I had posted "Are we having fun yet?" earlier as I was having fun today and aim to. But I was thinking of you later and tuning in to the fact that when the market is on you and it's not going your way it's no fun at all. I won't do my spiel about not averaging into losing positions as I've said it enough, for a while at least. But it would be good for all of us to think through the possible consequences when we do use that method. Not to get too philosophical (although I was a Philosophy major in college and I do see things that way) although major losses are quite painful at first, after some time to heal a bit, they may end up being blessings in disguise. I know that may sound like bs maybe. But if we reflect on what went down, and how we might do it better the next time, we'll be miles ahead of where we were. It's not just about what we do right, which is important too, but studying where we took the wrong path is equally important. Anyway, you'll be okay. You do some very good trades and know some important things about trading. And hey, you started this great thread. Have a good weekend. Don't beat yourself up for any mistakes. We all make them - guaranteed.
very interesting article ----- Judgmental âHeuristicsâ Or Biases And Developing Your Trading System, Part 1 http://www.traderplanet.com/article...ses_and_developing_your_trading_system_part_1 The real âsecretâ to making money in the market has to do with developing an edge in the market by using probabilities and proper money management. Unfortunately, people have trouble distinguishing between luck and skill when it comes to market predictions. We are unable to comprehend the many factors influencing an event as complex as the movement of a market. For example, if we had access to the number of buyers and sellers in the market at a given time plus information about the conviction and capital behind each trade, we would probably find the markets to be very predictable. Thus, any uncertainty you may have about how the market is going to behave at any given time is in you, not in the market. When you accept the fact that uncertainty is in you, rather than in the market, you will suddenly find you have much greater control over your own behavior towards the market. More importantly, you will have much greater control over the process of designing a trading system and greater understanding of how that trading system works. A relationship may occur only 35% of the time, and that may be something you can make money with, but it has nothing to do with being right or trying to explain something. What you must learn is that most trading systems come out of observations that have a certain probability of being correct. Those observations do not explain anything. Remember, a trading system is just a set of rules to guide behavior, nothing less or nothing more. Apparent random fluctuations in the market are caused by many more factors than you can possibly monitor in your system. Develop the attitude of following rules because they give you an edge in the market. Avoid the need to understand or explain the market. --- Part 2: http://www.traderplanet.com/article...ses_and_developing_your_trading_system_part_2 PART 3 http://www.traderplanet.com/article...ses_and_developing_your_trading_system_part_3
Oil's rise to 2-1/2 year high ignites inflation fears http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...ommodities-idUSTRE7236YP20110304?pageNumber=1 NEW YORK | Fri Mar 4, 2011 5:48pm EST (Reuters) - Oil jumped to 2-1/2 year highs on Friday on more violence in Libya, and more expensive crude sparked inflation worries that drove up gold but pressured copper and agricultural commodities on fears economic growth would slow. Corn, wheat and soybean prices felt the weight of increased energy costs, as investors fretted that the impact of higher energy prices might filter through to other economic sectors at a time when growth was finally starting to take off. With crude prices continuing to rise, some investors sought safety in gold as an inflation hedge, though it fell short of the record set Wednesday at $1,440.10 an ounce. By Friday's close, the Reuters Jeffries CRB index .CRB of 19 commodities had risen rose 0.64 percent as oil and gold, cocoa strengthened, but the upside was limited by declines in base metals and agricultural components like corn and coffee. U.S. crude oil futures rose for the third day in four, as fierce fighting between loyalists to Libya's Muammar Gaddaffi and rebels seeking to oust him from power raised more fears of supply disruptions. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for April delivery settled at $104.42 a barrel, gaining 2.46 percent to its highest since the September 26, 2008 close. Brent crude futures for April delivery rose to settle at $115.97 a barrel, having reached a high of $116.49. "Tension in the Middle East is like a runaway train," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets in London. "Once it starts, it's very difficult to stop. If there is a danger that it impacts the supply chain, people will get nervous." Investors feared extended supply disruptions as rebels fought Libyan security forces in Ras Lanuf, a major oil terminal, and as fighting broke out in Bahrain and Yemen and top-exporter Saudi Arabia, where Saudi Shi'ites staged protests on Thursday. Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi controlled the oil town of Ras Lanuf, after rebels said it was in their hands. FLEETING PAYROLLS IMPACT Earlier, the healthiest U.S. employment report in nine months helped oil along with copper and other commodities, but its effect was fleeting in the face of escalating violence in Middle Eastern oil producing countries. Non-farm payrolls jumped by 192,000 in February and the two previous months were upwardly revised. The unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent, its lowest since April 2009. "We have moved into the expansion phase of the economic cycle and the economy is self-sustaining," said Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York. But the improved labor market, along with higher oil prices, added to fears of a pick up in inflation. Investors seeking gold as both a safe haven and a guard against inflation sent prices up above $1,430 an ounce and silver up 3 percent to 31-year highs. The yellow metal notched its fifth consecutive weekly gain on fears that Libya's escalating unrest could spread across the Arab world.
http://www.traderplanet.com/article...ses_and_developing_your_trading_system_part_2 hindsight bias. ----------------- Another bias that tends to have a significant effect on trading decision-making is hindsight bias. People tend to see relationships in the market after they occur, and then assume they knew it all along. Itâs very easy to point out such a relationship after it occurs. Iâve worked with a number of clients who claim that they cannot follow their signals. However, what tends to happen is that they do not recognize the signals while they occur. Instead, they see many possibilities in the data.But once the signal is complete, it is too late! They then criticize themselves for not taking it when it occurred. The typical response is, âI knew it all along. Why didnât I take that signal?â This problem will not occur if you write down your criteria for a signal in enough detail so that it could be entered into a computer.You can then make a checklist for your signal (or computerize it). Once you do, you will always see a signal when it occurs or the computer will see it for you. Thus, you really will know whether or not you actually knew it all along.
CL Weekly chart. Parabolic move lately I agree. From this perspective. But doesn't mean it won't go higher before it pulls back.