CL Redux

Thanks! Guess I should still be holding for that $103 target :eek:

Here's the Failed Final Flag setup (works just as well with a plain old failed final breakout):

Price puts in a strong orderly trend, in this case lower highs and lower lows well beneath the falling 20-bar EMA. Normally the setup occurs following a 3rd or 4th leg in the trend and is especially good when there's been a history of wide back and forth action, which in this case there was.

CL puts in a 4th leg down off the RTH high and tests 100.20 twice. Price bounces very weakly off the 2nd touch and comes back in for the break. The double touch of .20 and the double touch of .50 resistance is very clear on the 1- and 3-min charts as a small contained range or flag. Price breaks out .20 but only by 5 ticks.

There’s a brave early-bird entry on the 1-min chart for pure bottom fishers, break of the 12:51pm ET bar high of 100.34. I want to be an early bird, but not THAT early, so I wait for price to show a little strength first (it rises back up to .50), then I place a limit order to buy 100.35 if price pulls back. My initial stop is placed a tick below the low of the 12:52pm ET 1-min bar low. I perceive this as the containment bar that, if broken, will likely take price back down to the previous low, and I see no reason to risk a max stop when I’m bottom-fishing.

Once the 1-min containment bar holds and .50 breaks, I move my stop just below my entry bar (pretty much b/e) and then focus on the trade management plan:

First target zone is the 20-bar EMA on the 5-min chart. As long as price stays above the 20-bar EMA on the 1-min chart, I’ll hold here, with .20 profit locked in.

Next target zone is 100.94. Price breaks that, closes above the 20-EMA on the 5-min chart and remains above it. I move my stop to lock in .40 because a break below 100.80 is a break back down through the 20-EMA.

Next target zone is 101.12, and I’ve calculated that a 50% retracement from the RTH high to the recent low is 101.19, so once price breaks 101.12, I’ll look to move my stop in very close in case the 50% retracement level finds a slew of over-caffeinated sellers, which in fact it did, and I was happy to take the money and run, mainly because I had a few things to attend to.

So that's my "swan's feet paddling like crazy beneath the surface" account of this trade

 

Oh, so sorry. Obviously news ain't my thang.

 

No, it's cool. We're all busy trading and in and out during the day. And we all miss some news, etc. Better to post it in case it is something new we need to know.

 

Different parties and what they said on Libyan Issue
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/03/libya.conflict/

US govt.
-------------
U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday the United States is examining a "full range of options" in the Libyan crisis. There is a danger of a "bloody stalemate" in Libya, he said, adding that he wants to be sure the United States "has the capacity to act quickly in event of humanitarian crisis."

"Col. Gadhafi needs to step down from power and leave," Obama said. "It's the right thing to do." The president also warned that advisers to Gadhafi need to understand that they will be held accountable for any violence they perpetrate against civilians. "They should know history is moving against Col. Gadhafi," Obama said.

Arab League
-----------------
The Arab League Wednesday rejected foreign intervention, saying Libya is facing "an internal affair that is decided by the people and their governments."

But the league cannot ignore the suffering of civilians and would consider the imposition of a no-fly zone in coordination with the African Union if fighting were to continue, said Hisham Yousef, chief of staff of the Arab League.

Libyan rebels
----------------------
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/Display...ernational_March169.xml&section=international
Libyan rebels reject Chavez mediation proposal (AFP)

3 March 2011, 11:07 PM BNGHAZI, Libya — The Libyan opposition on Thursday flatly rejected a mediation proposal by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to find a peaceful solution to the crisis in the country, a spokesman said.
“We have a very clear statement. It’s too late. Too much blood has been spilt,” Mustafa Gheriani, a spokesman for the opposition’s self-declared national council set up in the eastern city of Benghazi, told AFP.

Chavez, an ally of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, on Monday proposed creating an international peace mission with forces from friendly nations to try to mediate the unrest gripping Libya and avoid civil war.

“We will never negotiate with anybody on the blood of our people. The only way we can negotiate with Chavez is if Gaddafi goes to Venezuela (for good).

“Then we’ll ask him to have Gaddafi back in Libya to be prosecuted by our justice,” Gheriani said

Libyan Govt
-----------------
Gadhafi's regime Thursday sought to create an impression that it still controls the vast majority of the country, with rebels in charge of only pockets.

The government organized a trip for a CNN crew to visit a refinery in Zawiya controlled by the government. Rebels control the center of the city, but the refinery is on the outskirts.

The refinery, Libya's second largest, is operating at 80% of its capacity, officials told CNN's Nic Robertson.

<< gaddafi son confirmed they are bombing , but only to scare groups not to kill people in an interview shown on CNN >>>


ICC
--------
The International Criminal Court Thursday said Gadhafi and some of his sons and advisers are under investigation for alleged crimes against humanity.

"I would like to use this opportunity to put them on notice," ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo told CNN. "I want to be clear: If their troops commit crimes, they could be made criminally responsible."

It is the first time the court will be investigating claims as they are allegedly occurring.

Libya is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, which created the ICC, and does not recognize the authority of the international court. But the United Nations Security Council referred the matter to the court, essentially giving it "jurisdiction" over the situation in Libya, the court said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/world/africa/04hague.html
He said he was putting senior officials in Libya — “individuals with formal or de facto authority” — on notice that they could be held responsible if forces under their command committed crimes.

Mr. Moreno-Ocampo said his office in recent days had been inundated with reports from inside and outside the Libya. “Today I even received a letter from the lawyer of the Qaddafi family. He asked that the investigation be fair,” the prosecutor said.

 

Thanks for sharing that. What a thoughtful person that NoDoji is. It was interesting too that after the initial rally out of there it pulled back to retest S1 at 100.40. And then flew out of there as if to say, "Wait a minute, weren't we just here? We already checked this out. Let's get out of here."

Got some other work to tend to. Have a great evening everyone. See you later or tomorrow.

 

The train often backs up once to let the stragglers on board, but it rarely backs up twice

 

Thanks for the chart. It's good of you to know in advance where the lines of attack are and plan accordingly.

Earlier, you mentioned something about flushing out the weak longs before there is to be a reversal. And, man, was I expecting one. A big one in fact, possibly down to 99.40 to take our resident bull with it . After knowing such a flush would not come, I place a long order at 100.21 but the damn thing refuses to come down. All in all, a pretty poor day for this noob.

 

target 101.69

 

Clinton: Former FBI agent who disappeared in Iran being held in Asia

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/03/03/iran.missing.american/index.html?hpt=T2

Washington (CNN) -- Evidence is growing that a retired FBI agent who disappeared in Iran four years ago is alive and being held in Asia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday.
Robert Levinson disappeared during a business trip in March 2007.

"We have received recent indications that Bob is being held somewhere in southwest Asia," Clinton said in a statement. "As the government of Iran has previously offered its assistance in this matter, we respectfully request the Iranian government to undertake humanitarian efforts to safely return and reunite Bob with his family."

Levinson checked into a Kish Island hotel and attended meetings on March 8, 2007. He checked out the following day, but did not make a scheduled flight to Dubai.

In recent months, the United States received "proof of life," according to a senior diplomatic official and a U.S. government official. Both requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.

The government official told CNN the evidence was received within the last six months and is "clear and convincing proof that Bob Levinson is alive."
---

Levinson's family told CNN in 2010 he was working as a private investigator in Dubai and may have been looking into a cigarette smuggling case.


The State Department and FBI have consistently denied Levinson was working for the government and have demanded Iran free Levinson -- if it is holding him.

Iran has insisted it does not know his whereabouts.

 

Just curious, will oil spike due to this timely revelation?