Here is my view on Libya what is ahead Stage 1: US and many European governments are in rush to get out of their people asap so the when UN take actions like No-fly zone Gaddafi won't take hostage of westerners. Stage 2: some UN trade sanctions on Libya , account Freeze etc.. Stage 3: UN security council No-fly zone action that means Libya can not fly any air plane on it's own terrritory , if done it will be shot by UN planes ( much like Iraq no-fly zone implemented after first GULF war ) to protect people from Gaddafi air bombing. - this No-fly zone is kind of mini-war on Libya from US/EU under the UN banner , but UN forces stay out side of country and make sure NO air flying on Libyan skies. - this UN action starts only after Libya bombs people from air planes . Gaddafi know this fact , that is the reason he is not in rush to start air plane bombing in a BIG way and crushing the people movement with ground forces . - even if Gaddafi is successful in setting fire one or two OIL wells , I think UN will start NO-FLY zone action to protect Libyan people natural resources. At this stage my view is Gaddafi chance to recover and stay in power: 35% ( people movement controlled Libya increasing day by day ) people Revolution success: 65% once UN imposes NO-fly zone those number will change to 20% , 80% that is when OIL comes back to 92 level
if Gaddafi did not start Air bombing , people movement will grow and take over more and more of the country. if he starts air bombing of people or OIL-fields in a BIG way, it will trigger UN security council NO-Fly zone action either way he is toasted ...
LONDON (MarketWatch) â Oil futures extended their rally Thursday, with the April contract surging above $102 a barrel, as investors spooked by supply disruptions in Libya bid the price of crude higher. Crude oil for April delivery (CLJ11 102.07, +3.97, +4.05%) rose $4.58, or nearly 5%, to $102.67 a âThe marketâs explosive tone is attributable to fears that Libyan export levels are now steadily decreasing, something that the markets were unsure about at the end of last week,â said Edward Meir, senior commodity analyst at MF Global, in a note to clients. âThis is not surprising given the chaos engulfing the country and the fact that most of Libyaâs ports are not operational,â Meir said.