Saudis Can Replace All Libya Output http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFN225710020110222 MacIntyre noted that Saudi Arabia increased its oil production by almost 2 million bpd just a month after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 disrupted Mideast oil supplies. "They've done that historically," MacIntyre said of the Saudis stepping in to make up for lost global oil production. The EIA has Saudi oil output peaking at 9.7 million bpd in July 2008. The kingdom's output this past December was 8.6 million bpd and its unused production capacity was 3.7 million bpd, the agency said. "They certainly have the spare capacity to do that," MacIntyre said of Saudia Arabia's ability to replace Libya's oil exports. He said the Saudis would not pump the extra oil unless there were specific buyers for it. "They don't put oil out in the spot market." Most of Libya's oil exports last year went to European countries, with the four biggest destination countries Italy (354,000 bpd), France (204,000 bpd) Germany (139,000 bpd) and Spain (135,000 bpd). Libya is a small petroleum exporter to the United States, shipping just 77,000 bpd in oil and refined petroleum products. Libya does not even crack the list of the top 15 foreign suppliers to the U.S. market, according to the EIA. (Reporting by Tom Doggett; Editing by David Gregorio)
Just looking back at today's chart (2/22), Look at 1:27 EST, what a severe 'FU' candle (as one of you here calls it) marking a reversal.
My broken crystal ball sez that we'll chop around between 92 and 100 for the next 1-2 weeks. So turn off that damn news and just buy the dip and sell the rip.
I hope your crystal ball is right, I can only take up to 109 before I am raped...still need to find out why my stop on that short trade I went in with you didn't activate (the one short at 90.74 or something)
Baer, a former Middle East CIA field officer, is TIME.com's intelligence columnist http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2052961,00.html?hpt=T1 There's been virtually no reliable information coming out of Tripoli, but a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. --------- They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos. ---------- Two weeks ago this same man had told me the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt would never touch Libya. Gaddafi, he said, had a tight lock on all of the major tribes, the same ones that have kept him in power for the past 41 years. The man of course turned out to be wrong, and everything he now has to say about Gaddafi's intentions needs to be taken in that context. (See TIME's exclusive interview with Gaddafi.) The source went on and told me that Gaddafi's desperation has a lot to with the fact that he now can only count on the loyalty of his tribe, the Qadhadhfa. --------- And as for the army, as of Monday he only has the loyalty of approximately 5,000 troops. They are his elite forces, the officers all handpicked. Among them is the unit commanded by his second youngest son Khamis, the 32nd Brigade. (The total strength of the regular Libyan army is 45,000.) My Libyan source said that Gaddafi has told people around him that he knows he cannot retake Libya with the forces he has. But what he can do is make the rebellious tribes and army officers regret their disloyalty, turning Libya into another Somalia. "I have the money and arms to fight for a long time," Gaddafi reportedly said. (See TIME's special report "The Middle East in Revolt.") As part of the same plan to turn the tables, Gaddafi ordered the release from prison of the country's Islamic militant prisoners, hoping they will act on their own to sow chaos across Libya. Gaddafi envisages them attacking foreigners and rebellious tribes. Couple that with a shortage of food supplies, and any chance for the rebels to replace Gaddafi will be remote. My Libyan source said that in order to understand Gaddafi's state of mind we need to understand that he feels deeply betrayed by the media, which he blames for sparking the revolt. In particular, he blames the Qatari TV station al-Jazeera, and is convinced it targeted him for purely political motivations. He also feels betrayed by the West because it has only encouraged the revolt. Over the weekend, he warned several European embassies that if he falls, the consequence will be a flood of African immigration that will "swamp" Europe. (Comment on this story.) Pressed, my Libyan source acknowledged Gaddafi is a desperate, irrational man, and his threats to turn Libya into another Somalia at this point may be mostly bluffing. On the other hand, if Gaddafi in fact enjoys the loyalty of troops he thinks he has, he very well could take Libya to the brink of civil war, if not over.
Read carefully , this is one of the best source to know what may be coming from libya next 1 week. This info is gathered by former CIA officer is TIME.com's intelligence columnist, so has some credibility.