guys/gals: see my above article , oil refineries are sale at 80% discount price. we are all struggling predict this beast OIL price day in day out , he is less sweat plan. 1/ let us all chip-in and by a refinery at these low prices 2/ curde has 2 great low and high movements /week , on High days SELL Gasoline futures , on LOW days we buy crude OIL futures to process in our refinery. 3/ entries are done by PA team lead by NoDogi 4/ exits are done by fundamental team lead by Kid 5/ we do strictly buys ( Crude oil ) 2 times a week and sells ( gasoline ) 2 times a week , no more no less, just enough contracts to meet refinery contracts 6/ we buy enough OIL for our refinary and SELL contracts only those many Gasoline what refinery produce 7/ no monkeying around with naked SHORT and naked Longs of contracts , just strictly trading for our refinery only .. 8/ we take physical OIL delivery for our BUY contracts and deliver refinery processed Gasoline to meet our SELL contracts 8/ I think we should pull $1 million profits /month for the whole team .. what do you guys think ...
Well ended the day positive I think thanks to NoDoji. Trades: 1) Went long on CL as price went up but indicator was still pointing to sell. Trade went 7 ticks in my favor and started to reverse. Instead of taking my normal stop, I let trade go 22 ticks against me and averaged into to trade. I took 1 contract off at BE, and instead of letting my 2nd contract go for at least a decent profit, took it off at 4 ticks of profit. This contract could have made me 10 - 20 ticks of profit. 2)I went long ES on possible break of trend line with indicator confirmation. Trade did go 1 point in my favor before turning around. I added to my trade at 1.5 points down, and both contracts got stopped out. 3) I went long again on ES at a LL 2 contracts. I was watching market. My gaol was to take 2 points for 1st contract and let last 1 ride. Market went 1.5 points in my favor and then started to revers. I set 1st contract to get me out at 1 point of profit, which it did hit, then I took 2nd contract out at 1.75 points of profit. At this point, I am BE for the day. 4) Went long CL after I saw a spike test the bottom range, and positive green candles and indicator turning up. As market went a few ticks in my favor, I decided to move my stop up, and got stopped out at a small loss. If I did not move my stop I would have made profit of 10 ticks which is what I was going for. 5) At this point market goes above my target, and on a slight pullback, I decide to re-enter higher than the previous entry. This is where I thought of NoDoji saying to me in my mind, you could go for a scalping profit of 10 ticks or you could go for the top of last resistance which is a decent 20 ticks. I thought what would NoDoji do. She would not settle for 10 ticks of profit. So I set stops and targets and played StartCraft II. During the game I heard target filled, and after game was over saw that I indeed made 20 ticks of profit. What is amazing, CL keeps going higher after hitting my target. Mistakes on my trades today I see as adding to losers. Especially on ES when I was trading against trend and maybe trying to pick bottoms. I was using a 2401 volume chart to trade ES, but when I look at the 3 min chart I now see that ES never got back above its 20 MA, and every time it got close, it sold off indicating no reason for taking long trades. However, the trade near the LL did work and may have been fine since market wanted to make a LH. I really need to view both ES charts before trying to play that market. On CL, I really should have let my 1st trade either stop me out or get out at BE. I then could have gone long with another contract at the lows and tried for at least 20 ticks which would have netted me a positive morning, and then probably just quit for the day. I do feel that I over traded today, but my very last CL trade was and is going to be my last. Also, if I just took my original stop on ES with 1 contract, I would have only been down $ 100 instead of making it worse by averaging into the trade. I think it may be ok to average down 1 point on ES if I don't violate my original stop for the trade where the market proves me wrong. Also, I think it would have been better to trade with the overall trend for the day on ES unless I saw a major reversal which never happened even though all day I was expecting one. Of course it still can happen later in the afternoon, but I am done for the day ending up positive despite poor trading and over trading.
I'm glad my voice kept you from targeting 10 ticks profit, because today 10 ticks was like 1 tick on a normal day and 20 ticks was just noise :eek:
correction: we do not have EXISTS only entries, our exists are pickup CRUDE OIL , deliver Gasoline so Entries are done NOD/KID lead combined team
To level the playing field against our beloved fundamentalists, allow me to throw out a chart. Frankly, the last two days completely threw me off. Long or short?!!
I would actually watch the news if you are going for a longer term trade. Any good news for example riots stop, check the chart for price action, and then take a strong short since the market could easily fall back down to under $ 90 If news comes out say Israel attacks Iran, oil refiners being lit on fire by the crowds, check the news, and go for long on price action. Per the chart you just drew, I think CL has made its current top unless more bad news comes out, but its not a chart I can trade off of. In my stock accounts I was putting free cash to work buying some companies that I like which pulled back today. By the way, I sim traded the rest of the afternoon on ES, kept adding to a long position that finally got stopped out for a sim loss of - $ 600.00. So my decision to stop trading real money was a good idea.
Silly goose, emg posted on ES Journal where he was looking to go long. You're supposed to SHORT and target somewhere near his long order pending that will be missed by 5 ticks today.