CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    You got THAT right!

    What was 93.82 other than the low of the 10:54am ET bar on the 3-min chart? Was there any other reason for buyers stepping in there with such frenzy?
     
    #16051     Feb 22, 2011
  2. it was a L3 Camarilla pivot point.

    Quotetracker has this. I find it very useful in addition to standard pivot points.
     
    #16052     Feb 22, 2011
  3. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I just figured it out, too, it was the lower channel line. I haven't drawn TL's or channels today, just trading off S/R and mojo on the 1-min chart.
     
    #16053     Feb 22, 2011
  4. Record Glut of Oil Refineries Selling at 80% Discount: Real M&A
    -----------------------

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...at-80-discount-as-margins-surge-real-m-a.html

    There are 2.5 million barrels of daily refining capacity for sale globally, he said, enough to process the entire crude output of Nigeria or Norway.

    “I’ve never seen this many refineries for sale,” said Louis Gagliardi, managing director of energy at Hedgeye Risk Management in New Haven, Connecticut. Buyers will do well “if the plant has a supply source right in its backyard, or it’s large enough to enjoy some economies of scale,” he said.

    Volatility in Margins

    While the margins earned from turning West Texas crude and similar grades of oil into gasoline and diesel in the U.S. climbed to $25.43 a barrel last week, the highest level since 2007, integrated oil and gas companies that engage in exploration and production along with processing and marketing of the fuels have been trimming their refinery holdings to reduce the volatility of their earnings.

    The oil-processing plants are vulnerable to swings in crude oil prices and to fluctuations in consumer demand. Ten-day volatility in the benchmark crude futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached 157.7 on Dec. 31, 2008, the highest level since 1991, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

    Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, has been trying to sell the Pembroke refinery in Wales, its only remaining European plant, since March 2010. The energy producer’s refining unit lost $613 million in the last quarter before it announced the sale after the longest U.S. recession since the Great Depression crimped fuel demand.


    At that time, a Gulf Coast plant with the ability to process sludgy grades of crude oil could fetch $1,700 per complexity barrel, a measure used to price assets based upon their quality. The refinery will likely sell for just $350 per complexity barrel today, CRT’s Kohler said. That’s about 80 percent less than five years ago.


    ‘Lot of Upside’

    While prices for refineries have started to inch up as the rebound in energy demand boosts margins, assets still are cheap relative to future profitability, according to Tony James, president of New York-based Blackstone.

    “Each refinery has gotten a little more expensive as the cycles healed,” James said during a Feb. 3 conference call with analysts and investors. “But we still think we’re at the low” part of the refining cycle with “a lot of upside,” he said.


    Companies with facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Midwest will command more suitors and better prices than European refineries that aren’t as adept at handling the cheapest, dirtiest grades of crude, according to IHS’s Parry.

    Relative Value

    That’s also 28 percent less than the median Ebitda multiple of 6.7 paid in acquisitions of global oil refining companies in the past five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Tesoro is rated B3L by Bloomberg’s Company Credit Ratings, the lowest investment grade level, and BB+, one step below investment grade, by Standard & Poor’s.

    Companies with facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Midwest will command more suitors and better prices than European refineries that aren’t as adept at handling the cheapest, dirtiest grades of crude, according to IHS’s Parry.
     
    #16054     Feb 22, 2011
  5. racyb

    racyb

    On a longer time frame, it is an up trend line. Draw a trend line from Friday's RTH low to today's RTH low and voila, almost to the tick. I know that's an ancient trend line to you. :p
     
    #16055     Feb 22, 2011
  6. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I miss those trend line arguments :p
     
    #16056     Feb 22, 2011
  7. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    This price action has slowed to crawl. I've no idea how to trade this :D
     
    #16057     Feb 22, 2011
  8. racyb

    racyb

    Aren't we getting a bit spoiled :D
     
    #16058     Feb 22, 2011
  9. Today we had a week's worth of price action in one day. The good thing is there's more to come. Heehaw!
     
    #16059     Feb 22, 2011
  10. Looks like a slow grind up - 95.30 will be key (recent high).

    Cant imagine anyone wanting to be short overnight, with all the fuss in the ME
     
    #16060     Feb 22, 2011