CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. Visaria

    Visaria

    I added to my existing longs (i forgot to post those) at 9332, stop on all positions at 9325
     
    #15891     Feb 21, 2011
  2. Visaria

    Visaria

    I'm not supposed to be trading today, I'm supposed to be packing my bags for a week's vacation in the Caribbean.
     
    #15892     Feb 21, 2011
  3. cstfx

    cstfx

    Wow. Woke up and saw this big move. Riots are getting serious but this seems to have gotten a little ahead of itself. Taking a short targeting R1 and keeping stop a little wide due to the volatility.

    sh 9335 tg 9230
     
    #15893     Feb 21, 2011
  4. Visaria

    Visaria

    Reversed at 9325, short now
     
    #15894     Feb 21, 2011
  5. Visaria

    Visaria

    Out at 9315.
     
    #15895     Feb 21, 2011
  6. cstfx

    cstfx

    sorry, meant R2
     
    #15896     Feb 21, 2011
  7. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    z, I think you're better off using PA technicals, with previous S/R and trend lines getting the most honor and the 20-period EMA getting some honor (less with CL than with other instruments)

    92.42 was a daily S/R level in line and price paused there for about minute in the overnight session and then broke out hard looking for the next level. The next level was the upper channel line on the daily chart (draw a lower TL connecting 1/25 to 2/15 and then a parallel line across the 1/31 and/or 2/3 highs and price found R just a few ticks shy of that line not too long ago).

    If it moves back up there, then the daily chart high 94.89 is in play for the breakout.

    Since this is an emotional news-based move, it seems unlikely, and price should sell off pretty hard when this event fizzles, but then again, anything can happen.
     
    #15897     Feb 21, 2011
  8. Yes.

    Right now the pipeline from the Gulf that carries oil to Cushing only flows one way to Cushing, OK. Add to that the fact that Canadian Oil now flows in large and increasing quantities to Cushing, "backs up" against its refining and limited storage capacity and causes the near month to be artificially depressed.

    In 2013 when a new pipeline is expected to come online it is expected that Canadian producers will -- at times of backwardation -- through ship to the Gulf and bypass the Cushing bottleneck to sell internationally. The refining and storage situation in Cushing -- created primarily by pipeline anomalies -- is now out of hand. Even the spread between Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) and WTI is now at a record.

    WTI is quite underpriced and Brent a bit overpriced. And while I know it seems somewhat ridiculous to think that producers would actually ship significant quantities out of gulf ports to deliver as a substitute for Brent the reality is that at a $12 differential they are probably thinking of strapping barrels to the backs of "mules" to see if the can swim it.

    BTW ... WTI is marked as good delivery in lieu of Brent,

     
    #15898     Feb 21, 2011
  9. tzachi

    tzachi

    Yes. Libbia is the 3rd largest oil supply to EU and oposition said will stop pipeline stream if Gov. not stop the shooting.
    The Iranian shippes got permission to cross the Zues channel.
    Iranian opposition plans for a demonstration for Sunday.

    Isnt the word on the wall? In Libbia and Iran, they dont look @ the 20EMA...

    It was clear to me. When I was taking a crazy trade last week (holding into news, I said so too -crazy, and was lucky to win it)
     
    #15899     Feb 21, 2011
  10. http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFLDE71K0TK20110221

    * Crude oil prices jump on Libyan unrest, protests in region
    * Tribal leader threatens to halt oil exports
    * Striking workers stop production at Nafoora - Al Jazeera

    (Updates prices, adds quote, detail)
    By Jessica Donati
    LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose to a
    2-1/2 year high over $105 a barrel a barrel on Monday, and U.S.
    prices rallied by over $3 as clashes in Libya threatened to
    disrupt oil flows from the OPEC member.

    Brent futures LCOc1 were up $1.73 at $104.25 a barrel by
    1204 GMT after breaking above last week's peak of $104.52, its
    highest since September 2008.

    U.S. crude oil CLc1 prices were up by $3.05 at $89.25 a
    barrel around the same time.

    One of the bloodiest revolts in the region hit the oil
    exporter as scores were killed in anti-government protests, army
    units defected to the opposition and long-time leader Muammar
    Gaddafi's son vowed to fight to the last man standing.
    [ID:nLDE71K01F]
    The leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya said
    oil exports to the West would be cut off unless authorities
    stopped violence against protesters.
    "Libya is a significant producer and exporter of good
    quality crude oil, and threats by the tribal leader to stop
    production is worrisome," said Christophe Barret, an oil analyst
    at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
    Libya produced 1.58 million barrels per day in January, and
    major disruptions in the oil-rich North African country would
    present serious strategic challenges for Western governments.
    Italy looks set to bear the brunt of a fall-out if Libya
    descends further into chaos, but Eni Societa per Azioni (ENI.MI: Quote)
    on Monday said output there had proceeded normally over the past
    24 hours. [ID:nWEB0408]
    Oil prices extended their rally on Monday after striking
    workers halted production at Libya's Nafoora oilfield, Al
    Jazeera television reported on Monday, without giving further
    details. [ID:nLDE71K0FI]
    European oil and gas companies have evacuated staff and
    suspended drilling preparations in Libya as violence spreads
    across the north African country. [ID:nLDE71K116]

    CONTAGION
    A wave of popular unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
    has already toppled long-time leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, and
    traders are watching events carefully in other members of the
    OPEC group for signs of escalating tension.
    "The biggest concern is current contagion spreading to Saudi
    Arabia," said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets,
    adding that "markets hate uncertainty and will act first, think
    later".
    Saudi Arabia fears that unrest in Bahrain, where majority
    Shi'ites are protesting against the Sunni government, might
    spread to its Shi'ite minority, who mostly live in the eastern
    province, the source of Saudi oil wealth. [ID:nLDE71I03F]

    Bahraini protesters camped out in Manama's Pearl Square and
    pressed demands for a new government on Monday. "In the eyes of
    the people the government has already fallen," said Amir Ahmed,
    38, a government oil sector employee.

    Elsewhere, in OPEC's second-largest producer Iran, the
    daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was
    arrested on Sunday for taking part in a banned opposition rally,
    the official IRNA news agency reported. [ID:nHAF055934]

    In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh warned protesters
    demanding an end to his 32-year rule that they could not achieve
    their goal through "anarchy and killing", after nationwide
    unrest, which has killed 12 people since Thursday.
    [ID:nLDE71K0MX]
    (Reporting by Jessica Donati; editing by Jane Baird)
     
    #15900     Feb 21, 2011