oil 91.70 on Libyan unrest and oil Cut off threats and Behrin unrest , now we know what I was talking last friday in the below post ...
And here we are !!!!!! The news from the Middle East during the last 2 weeks were so clear that it was like to take the candies from the babies....
I seem to have missed the call for your long entry after that post of your opinion. My daily chart shows that two weeks ago price opened around 92.01, didn't run much higher, then reversed and broke the 20-day EMA and the previous pivot low from there. Was it so clear that it was like taking candy from babies on Friday when CL broke Friday's uptrend and was headed rapidly toward the overnight low? tzachi, I'm picking on you here because every trader has opinions and when price later confirms our opinions we file it away in the "See? I was right!" file, and when price violates our opinion we tend to toss it aside. It's called "survivorship bias" and it can lead to dangerous trading decisions down the road.
Since in practical terms it is very difficult to arb physical WTI against Brent delivery there frequently is not the same urgency for WTI and Brent to close the gap as it would be if Cushing were on the Gulf. Brent can go an awful long way up without dragging our deliverable grade up by even a penny.
I agree with you that I should have at the very least gone for 20 ticks. In my mind we did break resistance, so even if I had no chart target, I could have taken a standard target. I guess some of the issue was my Friday trading had made me jittery, and I did not set stops and targets and just walk away although I did make a change in that I waited for confirmation that price was traveling in my direction rather than just jumping in like I did that 1st trade on Friday with no technical confirmations nor price confirmations. I agree that breaking a previous high resistance or previous low resistance especially with previous trend is a decent setup. In my mind I said to myself I think we broke resistance, but after I got in price went up 4 ticks then back down to my entry price, so then when it shot up to a scalp target I could not help myself and killed the trade at a profit. Instead I should have gone and taken my shower, and come back to look at the chart.
What I am hearing here is - if Cushing ( WTI delivery point ) is on gulf , then one can easily load a oil tanker with WTI grade oil and ship it to Europe and this action will dimish spread
now now seriously Libyan problems reflecting oil in such a manner? Shorted 92.05 ... will add more if needed ... half position trade for now .. Really hate when prices moves on ponzy crap ... think about it .. libya ... even if the country will be erased from the map, what should that have done to oil prices. just my 2 cents
Just checked the Opec website - looks like Libya outputs (approx.) 5.8% of the total daily Opec quota (around 1566 bpd) If the oil output does get restricted - would anyone be so brave as to predict potential levels this could go to.........:eek:
Sorry forgot to add the scale - the 1566 bpd is in (000's), so approx. 1.6 million bpd is the daily Libyan output.
Now I am kicking myself for not paying attention on Friday, I would have gone long at 89.50, *kicking self*, but anyways, I believe this is waaaayyyy too overbought, the focus should be my home country [which is Iran ], not Libya which doesn't even account for much oil product in relation to other OPEC nations. Furthermore, the technicals may be pointing towards a swing short trade as well. The daily candle has hit the upper bollinger band and that reversal on stochastics could be coming any hour now...does anyone else use these indicators? I see that from the daily charts that oil bounces between bollinger bands quite a bit (it even does so on the 5min) And by the way Schizo, I had a stop on that trade that I entered with you, but the stop didn't activate for some reason, so I unintentionally broke the rules. But for the aforementioned reasons, I think I'll be adding to the short position should we go towards 94's. What do you think?