CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. schizo

    schizo

    Down it came but I ain't too sure bargain hunting ever took place. I was hoping they would push this baby back up to the HOD. That would have given clearance to the bulls to come out of their hibernation [sic].
     
    #15601     Feb 16, 2011
  2. EIA weekly Oil inventory numbers

    * Crude stocks rise 860,000 barrels to 345.92 mln
    * Gasoline stocks rise 205,000 barrels to 241.1 mln
    * Cushing inventories up 250,000 bbls at 37.66 mln
    * Distillates fall 3.1 mln barrels to 161.27 mln
    * Refinery utilization falls 3.5 percentage points

    - The data "was bullish across the board, with crude and gasoline stocks rising less than expected and distillates stocks declining more than expected," said Chris Jarvis of Caprock Risk Management in New Hampshire.

    - Inventories at the key Cushing, Oklahoma terminal rose a modest 250,000 barrels to 37.66 million barrels. Cushing is the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures.


    "Demand numbers have picked up slightly, but they are not supportive enough to snap the kind of slide we saw in WTI in the last two weeks, especially with a small gain in Cushing," said Gene McGillian of Tradition Energy in Connecticut.

    - U.S. average gasoline demand was unchanged from year-ago levels during
     
    #15602     Feb 16, 2011
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Jury's still out on where we go from here. But it's worth noting that for the last 4 or 5 days, we've had a steady grind up in the AH sessions. There's no sign that is the case by judging how things are moving so far. My concern is that we crater tomorrow, effectively trapping the unwary bulls, which has happened before.
     
    #15603     Feb 16, 2011
  4. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I have what may a stupid question, but I don't care because real traders no longer have egos and are quite content to ask stupid questions :p

    I notice often that there is small size at the bid and ask (as in my example here), and a large print hits the bid or ask and price doesn't move. The bid/ask stays the same. The way I interpret it, someone got filled at a price on far more contracts than the market depth was showing at that price.

    Is that because of hidden orders that don't print until the entire order is filled, or...???

    [​IMG]
     
    #15604     Feb 16, 2011
  5. schizo

    schizo

    Hidden or iceberg orders
     
    #15605     Feb 16, 2011
  6. David M

    David M

    out before market close 85.20

    ....

    well not much points but better than nada or a negative trade ..


    total 107 tick for this trade and 40 for my 3min scalping.

    only one 10 point loser today.

    see u all tomorrow.
     
    #15606     Feb 16, 2011
  7. David M

    David M

    OTC orders perhaps from institutions or hedge funds. pre-agreed trade that is.
     
    #15607     Feb 16, 2011
  8. Here is fun read on OIL trading on this url ..

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/teaching-trading/

    I traded oil for eighteen years before retiring to the south of France where I tend my orange trees and teach at two business schools in the area. Since I know pretty much nothing, I am forced to teach the little I know, which is commodity trading.
     
    #15608     Feb 16, 2011
  9. Picaso

    Picaso

    For those tempted to dethrone the BE King:

    I just revised my stats and it's actually 86 (eighty-six) trades without a winner. If you count a 200 trade as a winner then 75.

    Try doing that on purpose.

    Maybe I should just get a job in McDonald's... but then again I'd probably mess up the orders :D
     
    #15609     Feb 17, 2011
  10. Visaria

    Visaria

    86 trades without a winner clearly suggests something is wrong!

    Unless your approach is geared as to produce these strings i.e. only 5% (or something) probability of a (huge) win.
     
    #15610     Feb 17, 2011