2 charts both are telling me buy at 89.50 <a href="http://s1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/?action=view&current=4hourwedge.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/4hourwedge.png" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> <a href="http://s1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/?action=view&current=30minprofile.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/30minprofile.png" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
I think certain commodity markets differ quite a bit from stock index futures and other markets, since you have gigantic commercial hedgers involved, constantly building huge shorts on and leaving them, even if they go against them. Plus since crude is so controlled by OPEC, they have interest in keeping it above many operators break-even point (which in my casual discussions I have been told a few Chevron operated fields in California are about $40, I'm sure it's entirely different elsewhere), and below the point where people start actively looking and investing in alternative energy sources. They certainly don't want that, so will keep it below that "psychological point", so longer term shorts above that level by companies with net long exposure would make a lot of sense. Just locking in guaranteed profit essentially. I know there are a few studies funded by some oil companies which attempt to determine the price, which consumers modify their purchasing behavior. If memory serves me correctly, at $147, Saudi Aramco was fully online, pushing out more output then they had in 30 years trying to drive prices down ASAP. Unlike some of the other OPEC members who were blinded by short term profits and greed, Saudi seems to understand the concept of "pigs get slaughtered", and try to keep their business operating successfully for as long as possible. I often wonder if oil had never reached those peaks, and had been more of a slow climb upwards, if we would be seeing as much interest and development in electric vehicles and alternative energy as we are currently.
Indeed a nice ride on the Crude Luge. That triple bottom ~89.20 was just about as ripe as can be on the 4th test there. Nice breakdown earlier in the session as well. No tricks so far today, fairly straight forward it seems. A few pinbars on the 5min failed to reverse, but other than that, the 1min seems very clear.