Good one! I was just looking at my chart after being offline and it was registering in the low 91's. Now the data won't update. Ha. Can only laugh although it's been costly. Sometimes that's the way it goes. They're going to reconstruct my license key info so it works in the morning. Hopefully that will do it for a while. Or maybe by the time they fix it they won't be using oil any more and everything will be solar and electric.
I hear you. Those are really great points. I see now after watching it some that CL is different. Marches to it's own drum beat. And I think what you're saying about it "running too far" is the reason why we tend to think that these are good counter-trend trades. It just looks that way to us. This contract in particular seems to validate what you're saying. Just when you think it's topped out or run too far, it runs even higher. Or just when you think it's bottomed out, it sells off more. Like you say it takes discipline to keep with it and hold your position or buy a pullback or sell into a rally attempt in a downtrend. Comes with experience I think. I'm still learning. As I mentioned before it can help to do some sim trades and let them go and this can show you what happens when you don't overtrade and overanalyze. But then, of course, at some point there are obviously actual reversals too. Working on good strategies too to trade these movements. I have been trading TF and I know that one pretty well. I'm actually pretty good at finding good counter-trend entries after a big selloff. So that's different than finding a pullback in an uptrend. Like you say, if you get in too early you either lose some money or you may be entering before it's really bottomed. But if you wait too long you miss the rebound or a good chunk of it. I'm pretty good at catching the first pullback. But then it could be it hasn't bottomed yet. You get a feel for which is which by really tuning into the price levels in the Super DOM. But with CL I'd be more cautious too as it's more volatile and, to me at least, less predictable. Maybe that's just because I don't know it yet. They all trade so differently. Even the Index futures have their own personalities. Going to catch a a light dinner and then off to bed. Have a good night all. See you tomorrow.
You know I'm a real noob when it comes to all things TA, but I couldn't help but notice one thing missing from your chart: Resistance becomes support on trendlines as well. I hope that will serve you well in the future.
I'm sure many of you have read this blog but if anyone hasn't these guys are pretty insightful using a combo of fundamental and technical analysis. I know I like to trade in a bubble but when I'm bored in the morning it gives me something to do. http://crudeoiltrader.blogspot.com/
Thanks, Schizo, I've definitely noticed that when I draw trend lines. What a chop fest this pre-market is. I've 8 trades and net 12 ticks after commissions. I think I need to step away or get a big picture view, because nothing has follow-thru so far.
Looking weak. Just got up. Did a small scalp. They really hammered it down on that rally attempt just now.
My earlier scalp was short. Glad I took a small profit. Tempted to short it again right here. So much for the counter-trend discussion. Just looking at the price action. Gets a bit unclear. Just the way they hammered it down at .30 it looked really weak and they were selling it off. Was imagining 90.50. But then it ramped right up. Would have done better buying the bottom rather than trying to short into it. Hmmm.