Just checking in briefly. Glad you caught a break. There is quite a bit of resistance going on up to just over 93, but fundamentals have obviously driven this up.
Just a suggestion from a former rabid counter-trend trader: Going with the trend is so much easier. I traded in the direction of the trend all day and had two losing trades. One was an early positioning for a breakout that was stopped out because I didn't use my max stop; the other was a counter-trend trade.
I was thinking that exact same thing too as I see everyone here seems to be trying shorts. The big moves for the day were obviously long, at least so far. As you say, it's so much easier. The trend is our friend. But, as I've mentioned before, for some reason traders have a contrarian head set. It can take quite a while and many struggles to rid oneself of this. I speak from experience too. You need to listen to that inner voice and the contrarian way it's interpreting the market. And then look again and try to see another possible interpretation. Maybe try some sim trades too and see how well they do. Just some thoughts. And one more thing I think is that too much thinking can keep us from seeing what's actually going on too. We predict where things are headed based on this and that. But we need to see what's actually happening, not what we think. Again, I speak from experience. And I'm one who thinks a lot. Quoting ND, "Friend don't let friends think and trade."
After all my thinking - the trend seemed irrational considering other things and I could not get myself to see any upside. My upside ideas seemed too simple and I felt everyone else would already be all in if that were the case. I always have the correct answer go through my head (Buy/Sell) Just gotta pick the right one
Out 92.50 (from 87.50) Jeez, a little bummed out I had to take out half at 85.50 from 87.50 for a loss, a big loss, but the run-up to 92.50 made up for it, I made a profit on this trade but I would have been good for the entire year had I not taken out half. However, had I not taken out half, I was taking a very very risky bet and could have been wiped out on a few more dollars.
Glad this worked out well. I remember a chapter in Martin Schwartz's book "Pit Bull" where he has on a rather large losing trade and he's reducing the size and his wife keeps telling him "Get smaller, Marty, get smaller!" I think you did the right thing, reducing your risk. I don't recommend taking a swing long position after price breaks down the 20-day moving average until price breaks back up through a previous daily bar's high. Your trade would've been pain-free if you went long by trailing a buy stop above the daily bar's highs. Long on Friday @ 87.66, no heat on the trade and probably still holding at this point.