Swing long @ 75.90 .50 stop Good afternoon, good evening and good night! All aboard! <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/aqxtBggVsi0&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/aqxtBggVsi0&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
I wonder if some big oil traders are completely out of their mind: they bought inventory increase last week, and sold inventory decrease this week. did they mistakenly pressed the wrong buttons? or are they just irrational? or their computer programs went wrong?
They're gaming the system. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the fundamentals right now. Also there's a seasonal factor to consider now that we're transitioning into spring (we're trading March contract, no?).
I feel sorry for the guy who paid me for the inventory # this morning (again, don't ask me where I got the number, suffice to say I paid big money for it). I gave him a negative number and he went long heavily before the release. He said this negative # would propel oil up above 80 and that there would be no return due to warmer weather ahead. well, oil went against his prediction and position. Insider trading is not easy, I guess.
If we break below the LOD, 75 should be a easy steal. I'm a bit concerned, however, that 75 might not be the bottom. I'm of the opinion that there should be a selling climax before a reversal can kick in. There are still too many bulls masquerading as bears (such as myself) and we've hardly wrung their necks.
We have had serious dollar strength though! And DOW and S&P tanking always takes oil down... just any reason really... China stats where below expectations as well... demand!! I think following the flow is the way to go
Long 1 lot at 75.80 Going to stop scalping for the time being and start building a long swing position. I shall buy one lot for each additional dollar it drops, and if she hits 70, i'll hedge the whole damn thing. I will be shocked if oil does not recover by march.
you are right. the equities market messed up the oil market. I was expecting no dramatic movement prior to the release. After the release, oil wanted to go up (my condolences to those who went long), as is logical given an inventory decrease. But the equities market dragged oil down with it further.