Made a few mistakes but still made a profit. 1) Traded during lunch hour, CL was moving just 5 ticks when I got in. 2) Did not wait for a bullish signal like I did for the rest of the week when I took long trades. This was silly again. So I should have waited for lunch to end and waited for a bullish signal. However, lunch hour ended I was still long CL, and I tightened my stop. I then was getting a bullish signal on ES. So went long ES to try to scalp a point since I felt we were in a range market. CL still not moving, but ES finally hit my target, and CL finally started to go up. 3rd mistake, I should have either left my CL trade alone or moved my stop to BE. However, now that I was also positive on CL, I manually killed it for a very small profit. Also, since it was moving in a 5 tick range, I should have entered long at the bottom of that range, but really it did not matter much since I estimated right that CL would start moving up. My plan was to take either a loss on these trades or a profit on these trades and stop trading till probably Monday, but I may check Friday out. I did see a level to go long CL if my stop was hit, but I did not want to move my stop down and get in another long if trend had really reversed to the downside. Although when I went long, current trend was bearish, it mostly happened during lunch which was suspicious, and also overall trend has been mostly bullish with the ES holding up pretty well, so I did feel I was trading with the overall trend, just need to be patient next time, and wait for my signal and not trade during lunch hour.
BTW the triple top on CL 02-11 was 92.59 on 1/3/11, 92.39 yesterday, and 92.37 today. Pretty strong resistance so far. On 4/6/10 it got up to 96.84.
Since I was not able to trade yesterday, I decided to review my setups to see if I would have made money. In hindsight, assuming I would be patient, I would have made money. Glad I did not try anymore longs today, CL really tanked. Don't know if this is the start of a downtrend or normal correction.
we are approaching the 20 day again already around 90.20! But even if it doesn't hold the bears aren't out of the woods yet, there are still many support areas before that daily TL. Not sure how into ma's any of you are but we got some support at the 200 bar on the hourly (90.10) which is one ma I do pay attention to. s2 appears to be around 89.75 and after that there might be some congestion around 89.30. After all those speed bumps then I would say look out below! I'm not even going to watch the dollar today because I don't need any more noise in my head.
That sounds like a good idea. Sell Feb puts buy march puts. Opec basically said they will open the flow if we stay above 100. So may go to 95 or 100 now and then back to 80-75 in march. OIL: Oil eases towards $91 on disappointing US data, OPEC SINGAPORE, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Oil eased on Friday, pressured by disappointing U.S. economic data and the prospect OPEC would raise output should prices break above $100 a barrel for an extended period. OPEC will only hold an emergency meeting if oil climbs above $100 and stays there, although the group's Gulf members could informally add supply if needed, a delegate from a Gulf OPEC state said.
I figure lots of news this morning one right after the other so people are just waiting to get through all of that and then probably after 10am or so it'll start to pick up. That's just my take. So basically CL isn't going to $100 because nobody wants to have a meeting. Sounds good. Short at $99.99. BTW, when is everyone switching to the March contract?