CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Typical NYMEX open.
     
    #13851     Jan 10, 2011
  2. BCE

    BCE

  3. an intermediate down trend in the making. I'm guessing r1 and that trend line could cause formidable resistance. If we get back down to 87.30 I'll be loading up.
     
    #13853     Jan 10, 2011
  4. BCE

    BCE

    You're just greedy. :D :D Playing. :D And actually this is meant as a compliment. :)
     
    #13854     Jan 10, 2011
  5. EON Kid

    EON Kid

    your reading is correct, so what will it resolve itself to? I think a large bullish move after some up and down wiggles within the established RTH range
     
    #13855     Jan 10, 2011
  6. I am prefering to stay away till I see more steady action. Typically I like to expolit the weaker side, in this scenario I risk loosing my shirt.
     
    #13856     Jan 10, 2011
  7. EON Kid

    EON Kid

    I know what you mean, blindly swinging for the fences is a fast way to the poor house. Only play when you have a low/acceptable risk, entry method and you know your numbers in every scenario.
     
    #13857     Jan 10, 2011
  8. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Three scratches in a row both directions, no direction at all...
     
    #13858     Jan 10, 2011
  9. EON Kid

    EON Kid

    scalp the channel & you know my longer term thoughts
     
    #13859     Jan 10, 2011
  10. BCE

    BCE

    These are great points. Thanks for clarifying what I was meaning to say. You're right, when you average down into a losing position you usually do "get away with it." But this is a bad habit unless like you say you have a position size, risk management plan. But even then you may do this successfully what seems like forever and make lots and lots of money. But it's the one time when the trend continues against you or when there's some extraordinary event that it will kill you.

    I used to hang out in the Pitstock http://www.pitstock.com/ live trading room all day with several hundred other traders. And there was a guy in there that was one of the very best traders I ever saw. He just nailed trade after trade after trade. It just left you breathless sometimes wondering how he did it. But one thing was he never used stops, but instead averaged into positions if it moved against him. And this worked time after time. But I came to learn later that I think what happened was during the dot com bubble crash, he used this strategy and wiped out his account. I'm pretty sure that's what happened. And he amassed a huge debt. And being such a great trader, other people gave him their accounts to trade. And even several years later, and with all the great trading he was doing, he was still working his way out of debt. And you mentioned Long-Term Capital Management. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management They were really smart, but being so highly leveraged, almost brought down world economies.
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/
     
    #13860     Jan 10, 2011