Certainly hope you let this ride. I looked out in back and saw the short bus parked and noticed you were using the long bus.
U2! Seemed like today was a 20,000 tick day. Well maybe not quite that much. Well with all of the internet connection problems it worked out okay today. I made some good money shorting TF in the last 15 minutes. Saw all of those orders stacked up on the sell side. Year end profit taking. Onward and upward into the New Year.
Since absolutely no one asked, the following is graciously provided. http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/the-bees-knees.html You're welcome.
I just wanted to share a few more thoughts on yesterday's action, especially the breakout. As evidenced by my comments right before the breakout, and even after, I really didn't have a very good read on this. I did obviously identify the 89.80 to 89.90 b/o point, which anyone could. But I really didn't see that type of move coming at all. I was thinking more along the lines of this: But, of course, the market forgot to ask me for my opinion. I was looking more for a further pullback based on the fundamentals that created the pullback on Thursday. That would involve the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and the smaller inventories reduction. And I was looking to maybe try a short on a further breakdown below 89. And I was looking for a short entry on the breakout which of course is usually a really bad idea. I had so many internet connection issues earlier I think I just wasn't thinking clearly. And Star had it right on Thursday (although a day early) when he said: and: And it was only after the fact I noticed, and didn't notice initially: If we look at the chart below here we see that this was obviously trading in a fairly narrow channel between 89 and 89.90 for over a day. So what was to be determined was which way it would break. It chose up. And then once it broke out and confirmed that at 90 to say 90.20 or so this was where ND took her profit but as we now see was maybe the ideal entry point. At least she caught 30 ticks. Like I say I was looking for a good short entry. This is a case of having an opinion about what's up that you're maybe a little too attached to. At least I had the sense to observe the action and back off of any actual short, a lesson I've painfully learned before along the way. But my opinion kept me from truly seeing what was actually going on. That would be a big time breakout with volume. Lessons learned. This last week did have light trading volume mostly, as we've said, so we'll see how this acts this week. But it did pick up yesterday. I'm suspicious of holiday light trading. We'll see what happens once the big hitters return next week. FWIW, you'll notice I'm fairly new to this thread and in fact I just started doing some trading of CL and QM. I usually trade TF. But I have been trading for a number of years so have learned something along the way. I'll post my 2 cents and what may be helpful info such as USD charts, etc. And I'll gladly admit when I'm off. Anyway, just some thoughts on yesterday's action. Happy New Year! Looking forward to sharing and learning and making some money together this year and having some fun along the way. Best, B
One other add to my post above here. Right before Mark Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" came out he was the keynote speaker at a traders conference I attended in Las Vegas. And the key point in his talk that I always remember is that he said it's when you think you're right that you get into trouble. I mean that's really it isn't it? I personally think it may be okay to have some idea what's up based on fundamentals. But you have to be willing to give it up instantly when the price action, volume, etc. tell you differently. That's the true measure of what's up. I know many would say having any idea about what's up is a mistake to begin with as you pointed out in your Hard Right Edge thread ND.
BCE, always good to review out loud days like yesterday. I've begun to categorize some of the patterns that lead to strong trends/breakouts and haven't really experienced enough of them to manage the trades properly all the time (sometimes I nail it, sometimes I blow it). I've been much better at re-entering strong trends after taking profits than in the past, but the best bet is to hold the position until price tells you the swing you're riding is over. My initial target on pure breakout plays is minimum 20 ticks because, as price in a trend stair-steps its way up or down, the breakout itself is often 20-40 ticks. Every now and then, however, a seemingly basic breakout becomes a monster breakout, especially in an environment when the "thinking" traders are likely to become the desperately trapped traders. Some examples: 1. Bullish news, bearish price action, and vice versa. The thinking traders are counter-trending because they're basing their opinion on the news instead of the market's reaction to the news. The "dumbass" price action traders are following price and the further price goes against the news-based conventional wisdom the more frantic the price run can become. 2. A strong pullback in a trend attracts counter-trend traders who believe a reversal has begun. Price finds support at a key level (such as CL finding support over and over again on Thursday and Friday at the 20-day moving average, which is a key value buying level for trend-followers). Once support or resistance is well-established at the trend line or moving average via several tests that hold up, the trend-followers step in and the trend-following holders begin to add to their existing profitable position. As price begins to retrace the pullback, the counter-trend traders begin to exit positions. Finally, the last profitable counter-trend traders who didn't take profits (the ones who picked the previous top or bottom nearly to the tick) have to throw in the towel as their profits have evaporated, and at the breakout point the last of the counter-trend stops are triggered and the breakout traders drive price even further with their stop entry orders. 3. A strong trend weakens. Price may break out weakly and reverse (failed breakout), base/consolidate at a high or a low, then breakout weakly and reverse (failed final flag), or may leave behind a higher low/lower high or double bottom/double top. Price then works its way back to the 20-period EMA (standard pullback in a trend) and begin to resume the with-trend move, attracting the trend followers who initiate new, or add to winning, positions. If price fails to make a new low or high at that point and breaks back through the 20 EMA, a reversal may very well be in play, and it can be quite strong. BCE, feel free to call some trades or potential setups if you're comfortable with it. We'll offer up our analyses, as I offered my analysis to Star regarding averaging down a long on a break of 20-day MA support, which fortunately was never even an issue I'm liking the 20,000-tick challenge for 2011, and believe I can accomplish it!
Hey everyone, Long ago I posted to this thread detailing my brief foray into the world of intraday CL trading aspiring for some quick 10-15 cent scalping just looking at going long when there was massive selling and trying to get in at the bottom. Now I'm back but am using technicals as part of my toolkit using the moving averages (5 min, 9 min, 200 min) and a periods of overselling (or overbuying) (i.e through RSI) and going long/short based on such criteria on various times frames. Any ideas where I can get some good books on how to trade CL on an intraday basis and what kind of indicators and setups seem to work well? Again I'm only going to be doing one contract and looking to scalp 15-20 cents in hopefully less than 15-30 mins and then close shop rest of the day as I'm more of an option trader who loves to do spread trades and focus most of my energies on looking at stocks which have some interesting price movement potential and/or high IV. Thanks