I have no news bias. My automated alert engine gives me bias based on some conditions / calculations. Today it gave me short bias from roughly 10:38 - 1043 11:29 - 11:45 12:49 - 1:18 If I was already long then its good time to exit, thats given, but shorting good price so as to not get stopped out at 10 ticks and suck out 20 ticks is a challenge. I am fine tuning the engine to give to less signals ( even if I am not looking at the screen , it gives me voice alert ) . Since I have programming background I feel the urge to write a program
I am working on reducing the trades, but since this is my 5th week of watching live markets I am giving equal importance to whatever i see, I assume slowly after seeing more failures with certain setups I will avoid those as my screen time increases.
Is your system CL-centric? Meaning, do you trade CL based exclusively on what happens in CL? If so, a good way to accelerate your screen time acquisition is a market replayer (NinjaTrader and similar programs that you can get for free for sim trading) playing at x2 or x4 speed. You can download data from previous months and replay those days.
Today gives buying on the dips a whole new meaning. 86 here we come this permabear fool screamed uncle at .68. Whatever happens happens and starting at 2:30 i'm turning on trade mode
I have IB and Ninja setup, I have recorded data for few months now. ninja did have some issues recording from tradestaion e.g. Dow Index data. Since I recorded data during certain times, I missed in globex L and H etc, and those Day/ prev day HLOC indicator got messed up. I also (try) use volume analysis ( TS ) and IB volume is not reliable. I am not sure if previous months entire data file (24 hours for CL ) is available for fre download?
If you're trading with Ninja 6.5 be advised that when trading live you will need to switch to Ninja 7 (beta or production) since 6.5 doesn't read the contract month correctly. In Ninja 7 beta (you can have both versions installed, but not running at the same time) you can download previous sessions replay data [>Utilities>Download Replay Data] and - here's the kicker - the volume will be ok, since it's not IB's (aggregated).
Hi Walt, I appreciate that this thread has maintained its integrity all this time, focusing on actual trades, technical analysis at many levels and some help for those new to CL (it can be like learning to swim for the first time in rough seas). CL has enough momentum moves each day that I'm willing to endure a lot of b/e stop outs to catch the runners, and avoid losses whenever possible. Yesterday, for example, I had 7 trades, all short, 3 scratches, and 4 runners, two 20's, a 30 and a 40. As a result of cutting any potential losers very quickly, but persisting until I catch some runners, I'm able to generate a profit on most days, as long as I put on enough trades. If I put on a pure counter-trend trade (no confirmed price action signal, just a failed b/o or measured move pullback play), I move my stop to b/e after 10 ticks and sometimes even less. My initial stop has to be 10 ticks or less as well, or I'll simply wait for a with-trend trade or a confirmed reversal. A good counter-trend setup should reverse with enough conviction that you needn't risk much. On a with-trend trade, I usually move my stop to b/e after 10-20 ticks, depending on how and where I entered the trend. I often enter a trade at a pivot point on the break of a bar's low or high and as a result price very often returns to test that level, and shake out the traders (me) who moved their stop to b/e. That's why I have so many b/e trades. But I will quickly re-enter if it turns out to be a stop run. I try to get back in at the same price I initially entered. Often I can get back in there, sometimes I chase at a worse price and sometimes it just runs too far for me to feel that a survivable stop can be placed and I let it go. A couple examples from yesterday: I shorted with-trend @ 81.77 at 10:27am ET, 15-tick stop and 81.42 initial target. I moved my stop to b/e after 13 ticks because the momentum was good, but was stopped out 81.76. Price only ran a couple more ticks and suddenly reversed. I jumped back in as soon as I realized the momo was on, but my re-entry was 81.60. I moved my initial target lower as price came in hard, then took it off @ 81.40 on the rebound. So moving my stop on the first trade prevented a potential loss, but cost me 17 ticks profit. Later I shorted the micro-trendline break @ 81.89 at 11:53am ET, 15 tick stop, initial target 81.48 and possible retest of the RTH pivot low. Because price was above the 20 EMA and had been HLs and HHs off the pivot low, I treated this very much as a counter-trend trade and moved my stop after only a few ticks, because I was watching for quick follow thru on the break of the 20 EMA. It broke by only a couple ticks and I was stopped out b/e as the micro uptrend tried to resume. Price broke the previous bar's high, but only by a few ticks before pulling right back to the previous bar's close, where I immediately re-shorted at the same price as my first entry, 81.89, and moved my stop to b/e again after 14 ticks in my favor. Price came close, but failed to break that level again and I rode it down, through my initial target and took it off at target on the rebound off 81.42 for 41 ticks and my best trade of the day. If I hadn't stayed focused and missed that re-entry I would've been here whining again. On my first trade this morning that was stopped out to the tick, I could've easily re-entered @ 82.21 which was a worse price but would've still provided over 20 ticks profit at target, but it was very close to the news and I didn't want to get stuck in a losing trade if price stalled or reversed at that point. On breakout trades, I move my stop to or very close to b/e as soon as price breaks out, except in those instances where I decide I would like to donate 10 ticks to some nice counter-trend trader. I want to catch only those strong breakouts that run 20-100 ticks from the previous high/low and anything less isn't worth it to me. In fact, if it's a weak b/o, I'll counter-trend it. So there is some insight into my somewhat hectic trade management, but it works for the most part.
Since you seem to be a newer trader, I recommended being "already long" and using your signals to exit. Trading with the trend is so much easier and safer. When you trade in the direction of the trend, you have the force of the majority behind you, trend followers will push a trend to the bitter end, and it's easier to target profits (at a new high or low). At the very least, wait for a confirmed reversal signal before counter-trend trading. A trend will have at least 3 legs before consolidating for a continuation move or reversing. Look at ES today, from the RTH pivot low, it's had 2 legs up, consolidation, and 4 more legs up as of now. There were no reversal signals, so if you were a counter-trend trader, you were either sitting on the sidelines all day or you were scalping for a few ticks.
I agree trend is friend ( but both have "end" in the end ), tomorrow onwards will try to stick with trend.