Hi nodo My current thesis, which has worked well for me recently, is shorting any pop the night before or the early morning of the report...the reports are always sooo bad that invariably there is some selloff in advance of the report itself. I agree with you also...i think you could also go long right before the report...and either get out on an unusual immediate pop, or ride out the typical quick selloff that usually reverses ridiculously higher within a few minutes. Maybe if my shorts trigger tonight i will reverse instead of just covering right before the report! Actually...thats what i will do. If my shorts trigger, and if they close for the expected profit at 10:30 or so, then I will hold one contract long through the report. We'll see what happens.... Only thing is, if the market is off or under a lot of pressure, I won't do it. But then, we know the market doesn't go down anymore, does it?
Sorry, but I can't take these chops any longer. Out 76.62. I've known a few successful swing traders and have always wanted to master the craft but so far I've had more misses than hits. I believe the whole notion of swing trading must be redefined.
short got filled last night at 76.75. Will hold until just before the report...I will stop out above 77.25 though. more to come...
The API report yesterday showed that crude stockpiles dropped 2.42 MB to 361.7 MB, while gasoline inventories rose 3 MB to 230.8 million last week, itâs highest since February. Traders anticipate the release of the EIA report later on today. Nice fill Huggiebear I was thinking 76.70 area as well. I'm glad I slept through all that crazy bullishness to wake up to see I'm right back where I started. I'm looking for 75.40ish
I'm going to put in a cover trigger at 75.75 with a trailing stop on it (since i can't watch this non-stop). There has been a lot of support at 75.50 - 75.75, so while that may give way, I will take whats given to me if we get near there.
This wasn't so crazy, dollar tanked oil went sideways in it's upper range. But this chart show the slow convergence. They crossed back in august and then widened back out.
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Just donated my 15 ticks flat at .50. Gonna reevaluated. I'm confused you're not supposed to fight the tape but you're not supposed to follow the herd. So do nothing?
you always want to do the opposite of whatever the opposite is, as long as you are with the trend and take a contrarian approach