This is strictly from my own experience: I've found that as a day trader using a 5-min chart, it's better for me not to know news and fundamentals. If I see news that is bearish, it keeps me out of excellent long trades and vice versa. As for large traders manipulating price, I believe that's much of the reason CL tends to run farther in a given trajectory than a highly liquid and efficient trading instrument like ES. I want to learn to take advantage of those price runs, whether it's by trading breakouts of support and resistance levels, or positioning myself early to catch such breakouts, because at least one of them a day is a big runner. I rarely see a big rogue move come out of "nowhere". In other words, I rarely see such moves break in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. For example, the upside breakouts early today all came as part of an uptrending move. Once the steep micro trend-line was broken with the 11:15am ET bar, the break down was a pretty clean 40+ ticks. In other words, the drop didn't come out of nowhere; it came from a trend-line break following a failure to break through yesterday's resistance. Later a lower high was put in around noon ET and then a shallower, longer term trend-line was broken by the 12:23pm ET bar (this was one of my trades today). The point here is that by now you should either be positioning yourself short, or prepared to close out your long positions on a break of 77.39. If you are positioned with the short term intraday trend, you will rarely get zapped by the kind of move that followed the break of 77.39. Although you may have no idea whether it's technicals, news or big trader manipulation that causes a crazy move like that, you don't really have to know as long as you stayed position with the prevailing trend. (In case you're wondering, though, the actual reason for the large price drop was the fact that I had to leave at 12:45pm ET and so had just covered my short position a few minutes before that.)
Speaking of news and fundamentals. here is the economic calender for today. EIA report at 10:30 AM ET. I made 9 trades yesterday, way too many for me. switching to 5 min chart to slow it down some. wrote a little program to automate the entries, so I can just focus on exits and stop management. good luck everyone. Wednesday, Sept-15 MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
[Congrats to Ammo for a great trade, to that lucky bastard RiskAddict for cashing in - again - between his golf and his video-games and to the RQPA NoDoji for consistently churning money out of this market no matter what it does] 1) What you're saying is that it's better not to have a bias that keeps you out of trades? You don't need to know the fundamentals for that, as you well know 2) I'd say that one of the factors that keeps CL (and other commodities) running further is simply that it's a thinner market with a larger range, therefore it's way easier to trigger stop-runs. Add to this that ClearPort traders hit the "Sweep" button in a way you don't see in equities futures. 3) The reason why people study fundamentals is not to understand why the market has done what is has done, but to be able to position themselves for what it may do next. I don't follow hurricanes to see if the last dollar up was due to a hurricane (or a pipeline leak, etc), but to be on the alert for where and when the next hurricane-induced move may come (now I only have to bring myself to push the button). Same with news, inventories, etc., only these are easier to be on the outlook for since they have a more or less fixed schedule. 4) I'm still mad at you
Speaking of the devil, it seems all hurricanes/tropical storms are going to clearly miss the Gulf area. Also, Enbridge will reopen the pipeline over the weekend. http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...wed-to-start-pipeline-6a-by-end-of-week-.html
Closing this Long Brent-Crude/Short WTI trade last friday (4 days ago ) in SIM acct. exit price: ( as of 15th, 2010 - 07:46 EDT) 78.62 Brent LONG/75.68 WIT Short = Net $2.94 profit: $2940 - $1700 = $1240 It is pretty quick 2 days this spread worked , I thought it may take 1 to 2 weeks. The reason it worked quickly as you can see from the prices is WTI broken down where as BRENT did not since FRIDAY. The spread reduced due to EnBridge pipeline Break ( from $3 to below $2) on last Friday , since the Pipe line is fixed today the Spread is back to $3 .. ---------------
1) Yes. If there's really bearish news but price is trending up, you ought to be trading long, not watching it move 80 ticks upside for the next 90 minutes while waiting for a short signal because the news is bearish. (On the other hand we shorties sure love those 5 min retraces of 90 min upside moves...) 2) Agreed, so let those winners run! 3) I like to know when certain news comes out, but again, bias over what the news is always keeps me out of good trades. 4) Maybe I can get Briefing.com to stream "She's leaving her desk" across the news wire when I step away. It does seem to be market-moving news most of the time
API Inventory Report â September 14, 2010 (STOCKS LISTED IN THOUSANDS OF BBL) CURRENT WEEK YEAR AGO PREV WK CHANGES 09/10/10 09/04/09 08/27/10 Ref % Operated â - 85.6 84.6 86.2 Ttl Mogas Stocks -963 225,331 208,826 226,294 Distillate Stocks -1,524 167,505 170,295 169,029 Resid Fuel Stocks 987 38,239 34,764 37,252 ** Crude Imports 188 8,907 9,022 8,719* Crude Oil Stocks 3,333 361,838 336,946 358,505*
Targeting 74.30 based on TL Inspiration. <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GGXzlRoNtHU?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GGXzlRoNtHU?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>