Other than that weekly API/DoE number this is by statistical correlation an equity market trading journal. Two year correlation is 93.2% to the S&P 500 close on close. To balance volatility, multiply the ES by 2.1568. You guys are scalping the stock market.
In another thread, they all said Nodoji is the ONE. the new bearer of the holy grail. teach away Nodoji, never mind the naysayers, please just ignore them. There were other great price action traders, Anek, susanna, stealthtrader. They all got into pissing matches with other posters and stoped posting, then left. A big loss for us wanting to learn price action.
This is my graph of what I think Nodoji was looking at for her trade where she 1st sold 1 at 72.48 and then bought 2 at 72.26 My thoughts on this 1st short trade are as follows, she was either anticipating lower prices on the sell or waited to see the price start to break down. Not sure if she used a standard target or got out when trade started to reverse on her. She only did 1 contract since this was not a perfect setup. On the buy, I assume she saw that nice green candle overcome the red candle. I assume this was a better setup for her since she did 2 contracts. Now for the target for the buy, I think she was either targeting the recent resistance or decided to stay in until the candles started to go against her. Both trades were really well done. I think if I had a 2 contract buy trade, I may have just taken 1/2 off at standard profit, but she let the market or main target get her out. I am assuming for sake of argument that she moved stop to BE or close to it once trade was in her favor, but I could be wrong. From my trades on CL, I took a 7 tick scalp short late in the day which could have gotten me 30 ticks, so I really need to work on having better targets when I am on the right side of the market, and I may then have better days in the future. Instead also on CL, I averaged down into a long during the afternoon that ended up going 20 ticks with 2 contracts against me, and ended up taking 1 contract out at BE, and the 2nd out for 5 ticks of profit on a trade that could have given me 20 ticks of profit. Again compared to Nodoji's trades we can see some of the issues with my trades.
With-trend, I always have a mental target zone, which is the test of previous support or resistance. This must be at least 20 ticks or I won't take the trade. I expect price to break this level and make a new high or a new low, but if that S/R level holds, I may exit early on a reversal signal, may possibly stop and reverse, or often get stopped out break even. Counter-trend I have a 20-tick target. If price comes in to that level with conviction, I'll move my target farther away, and start trailing a stop. I move my stop to break even after 10 ticks. No mercy on counter-trend trades. I attached an annotated chart from today (haven't done one of those for quite a while). As much as I'd like to post charts and trade analysis regularly, I'm actually planning on much less posting here in general because I have a music project I'm starting very soon The way I trade is very standard price action strategy. There is nothing really special about it, except that it works more often than not. That is the Holy Grail: odds in your favor if you trade all valid signals. The biggest challenge is trading all signals, not tightening stops too soon, and trusting profit targets to be reached despite a lot of price wiggle in between here and there. I will say this: CL has more inertia than anything I've ever seen and will almost always run further than you think when it gets going. So take advantage of that and go with the flow!
doj,.. i think your full of it and a fake,....take this and all naysayers with a grain of salt,forgive yourself as you forgive others,free yourself of the ego that lingers and might take offense,you and others egos don't matter,only the truth, which in the markets is price,and your acct..let it go and prosper..i think you already know this..it's a lesson for naysayers
Value area for today: VAH: 74.36 VAL:73.76 If we open below VAL, that will giving me a short bias for today. Have to see if it test to VAL how it react to that number. In a breakdown, I am looking for 72.23(VPOC) as a potential target Good luck to all VPOC, stand for virgin point of control, which is a POC that has been touch for no more than one or two 30 min time frame.
What? Abbandon us your price action friends for music. Thank you for the chart with annotations, very informative.
Thanks for this. I have to admit that I am a fan. After lurking on this board for several weeks, trading my own way and doing OK (not great, but OK), there was one day that really caused a shift in my thinking. After a particularly choppy day in CL, I squeezed out 8 ticks and was feeling proud of myself. Then I read your post where you pulled out over 50 ticks - WTF?!?! I went over your post and well annotated chart, and compared it to my chart and saw opportunities that I missed. My trading style always left lots of money on the table. I know I can't hit everything, but I would often sit by helplessly, watching price run away, waiting in vain for a signal from my system. This has bothered me for months, but I was content to live with it since I have been profitable. Now I'm reevaluating everything, pouring over old charts and trades, and spending ridiculous hours in sim. My sim trading hasn't been going too well, and I've somewhat lost confidence in my old way of trading. Just when I thought I'd turned a corner (modestly successful with my previous method), I find myself back at the beginning. Well, back to Sim City. It is what it is. Good luck with your music.