It would take a close below 39 to have me reevaluate my long term view of CL being bullish. Until then, or an obvious sell signal, my position trades will be from the long side. --And Swings could be from either side.
As another poster has suggested if your outlook on oil is macro based, then might as well position with stop being substantially lower & hold. Secondly, monthly may close below 39, yet quarterly may close above it, then what? Monthly bar has previously closed below 39, proceeded to previous reaction low of 30 zone, overshot it & bounced back up. But make no mistake - current trend is down.
I dunno. During the crash of late '08-'09, I expected INDU to fall to a level seen in '95ish. It didn't, but adjusted for inflation, it did. During this time, oil crashed, but the contango went crazy. I wanted to get long, but couldn't see paying a $20 (If I remember correctly) spread. Does not the current curve suggest lower volatility? IV as well. I like the long here, but not a $60 target. Of course - things can change.
%% Yes, Mr Don; lower vol suggested; but higher volume when they really, really want TX TEA LOL. Sometime$ NOT adjusting for inflation can be a good thing.Pardon me for using a small sample; i bought something @ the Dollars store+ strangely the checker said ''i'm trying to give you this'' it was an old liberty dime, i gave her an extra 00.25. She gave me some more change back + the liberty silver dime. BUT i did not want to pay her='' adjusted for inflation LOL '' ; i seldom use a small sample like that............................................................................................
%% I see your points JSSPM; i measure trends a lot of different way$. And here is why so many HATE Tek Analysis LOL. Measured from monthly HIghs, most of the trends are down; measured from the monthly lows most of the ttrends are UP. Measured from open to close[ your monthly chart, my many charts] its up trending again. MODERN TRADER MAGAZINE[JUNE issue mailed late May] make$ a good case for a bull move or a bear move. Nice Chart/candlechart........................................................................................
He stated - long term, oil in an uptrend. Who cares what it did in 2008 or maybe what it did since 1965, I ain't holding that long, neither would B1S2, so what relevance does it have to shorter holding periods? None. I have completely abandoned making decisions based on timed charts (monthly, daily, etc). The variance in those creates doubt. I just trade levels now, buy low, sell high type stuff. Bank on potential double/treble bottoms/tops, risk management takes care of most the decision making.
Good points JSSPM; but you ALSO posted a long term Uptrend chart[>> that included 2008] LOL-LOL.......................................................................................................................I figure long term stock chart$ have more meaning, not many traders/investors take delivery of crude, many take over a company.
I just posted it to make a point that whatever long term uptrend B1 was going on about is currently in a downtrend