CL Forward Curve

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Trader13, Nov 30, 2016.

  1. Trader13

    Trader13

    What's going on with Crude Oil in 2018-19? It looks like it just went haywire.
     
  2. Stale prices in some expiries, no doubt. I'm sure you've seen the OPEC headlines.
     
  3. Trader13

    Trader13

    Thanks, I would have expected more from eSignal.
     
  4. wintergasp

    wintergasp

    Half of the contracts in the back of the curve have zero volume, so the exchange makes up a settlement price.

    If you only look at volume traded you should see this upload_2016-11-30_17-17-59.png
     
    CBC and Trader13 like this.
  5. Trader13

    Trader13

    Makes sense, thanks.
     
  6. There are no prices -- those expiries haven't traded. Esignal can't invent trades.
     
  7. Trader13

    Trader13

    You're quite correct! I have to remember this chart shows the last trade price, not the last quote.

    This was a good lesson for me. Next time I see a distortion in a fwd curve, it may not be a mean reversion trade opportunity. Just as likely to be a stale print.
     
  8. JackRab

    JackRab

    Yeah, old prices that's what I thought as well.

    Exchanges are shit that way, they should provide better data. When related prices change by a lot, the last traded price isn't reflective of the value anymore in case of no trading.