Citi says India will be the largest economy by 2050

Discussion in 'Economics' started by kingfisher3210, Feb 24, 2011.

  1. The 10 largest economies by 2050 (in trillion 2010 PPP dollars) will be very different from what they are now.

    In view of its continuing robust growth, India is expected to be the world's largest economy by 2050, surpassing China and the United States, a Citi report said.

    "China should overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020, then be overtaken by India by 2050," financial services group Citi said the report.

    The estimates are based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an economic growth indicator that takes into account the purchasing power of each country's currency, instead of the prevailing exchange rate conversion.

    Indian economy is expected to be nearly $85.97 trillion on PPP basis by 2050 from $3.92 trillion in 2010, Citi said.

    Going by the report, India would surpass the US -- currently the world's largest economy -- to become the second largest by 2040.

    "We expect India to overtake Japan to become the third largest economy in the world by 2015," it noted.


    In terms of PPP, Indian economy -- valued at $3.78 trillion -- was at the fourth place in 2009. The country was behind the US, China and Japan, according to the World Bank.

    Citi pointed out that North America and Western Europe's share of world's real GDP (in terms of dollars calculated on PPP basis) is expected to fall from 41 per cent in 2010 to just 18 per cent in 2050.

    During the same period, developing Asia's share is predicted to rise from 27 per cent to 49 per cent in 2050.

    Citi emphasised that a number of major changes within a relative short time are required for India to meet future challenges.

    Noting that India's infrastructure has to be improved, Citi said the country needs to relax its "hostile attitude towards FDI", if it is to reap the benefits of rapid cross-border technology transfer that China has benefited from so greatly.

    "...a further round of serious deregulation of the domestic economy and further trade liberalisation are required," it noted.

    The report said India's population of working age is expected to grow by 40.7 per cent between 2010 and 2050.

    India has successfully raised its aggregate savings rate to levels that would allow sustained high levels of domestic capital formation (the domestic saving rate averaged 34.4 per cent over 2006-2009 and the gross domestic investment rate 32.4 per cent), the report added.

    Citi pointed out that North America and Western Europe's share of world's real GDP (in terms of dollars calculated on PPP basis) is expected to fall from 41 per cent in 2010 to just 18 per cent in 2050.

    During the same period, developing Asia's share is predicted to rise from 27 per cent to 49 per cent in 2050.

    Citi emphasised that a number of major changes within a relative short time are required for India to meet future challenges.

    Noting that India's infrastructure has to be improved, Citi said the country needs to relax its "hostile attitude towards FDI", if it is to reap the benefits of rapid cross-border technology transfer that China has benefited from so greatly.

    "...a further round of serious deregulation of the domestic economy and further trade liberalisation are required," it noted.

    The report said India's population of working age is expected to grow by 40.7 per cent between 2010 and 2050.

    India has successfully raised its aggregate savings rate to levels that would allow sustained high levels of domestic capital formation (the domestic saving rate averaged 34.4 per cent over 2006-2009 and the gross domestic investment rate 32.4 per cent), the report added.

    RANKINGS IN 2050:

    1. India: $85.97 trillion

    2. China: $80.02 trillion

    3. United States: $39.07 trillion

    4. Indonesia: $13.93 trillion

    5. Brazil: $11.58 trillion

    6. Nigeria: $9.51 trillion

    7. Russia: $7.77 trillion

    8. Mexico: $6.57 trillion

    9. Japan: $6.48 trillion

    10. Egypt: $6.02 trillion
     
  2. STOP

    this is embarassing
     
  3. Future is like a prostitute, everybody can claim no body can own.
    Jihad Martyr will have "72 virgins"; Beggarly Buddhist will have "good next life".
    Current misery, destitution, and fatalism call for credulity of fantasy.

    Pathetic!
     
  4. AK100

    AK100

    India hasn't got a chance unless they sort their 5th world infrastructure out. Remember this is a country that has 1 proper highway/motorway and even then it's got the obligatory horse carts, mules and cows on it.

    If they don't do that the country's economy will collapse on itself, you can bet on that.

    You know, basic things like water, energy and proper roads. Anyone who's been there will know what I mean. The buildings/roads of Mumbai for example are basically in a timewarp circa 1940.

    I'd also like them to try to sort out the gross problem with their poor as it's offensive to see so many families living on the streets. Walk out of a train station at night and you have to zigzag them all as they're bedded down. In a country like Uganda perhaps but not in a country that purports to be an economic super power of the future.
     
  5. I think there was a report saying China will be $130 Trillion economy in 2040 (if there is no World War 3)
     
  6. That report was from an economist acting solo to market himself.

    This report is from Citi collectively put by a team of top ranked global economists after studying lots of data.

    This report is more relevant, genuine and trustworthy.
     
  7. The problems will remain in 2050 also...there are going to be few million Indians who will be beggars, sleep on road and die of starvation.

    However, the 250 million Indians who are currently living under poverty line will reduce drastically.

    The report says there will be 2 billion Indians by 2050 and as their standard of living increase, the total economy size will be gigantic.

    But from the per capita point of view, India will be a laggard as compared to American and European countries.

    India will not be superpower or economic power but will have the largest economy in the world primarily because there will be 2 billion Indians by 2050.

    Simply it is a case of growing population multiplied by increasing standard of living.
     
  8. AK100

    AK100

    Which means it will defiantly collapse on itself. The world let alone India cannot support another 1 billion people.

    The planet already got too many people for the available resources and it's getting close to breaking point.

    Those mad Americans with the cabins, guns, water and cans of beans might be proved smart over the coming years :)
     
  9. Agreed. Infrastructure is the #1 issue for India if it truly is to become an economic superpower. Efficient movement of goods is essential. Without it, the economy capacity will surely be strained.
     
  10. when Citi was $40-50, did THEY predict that it will trade @$1 a year later?
     
    #10     Feb 24, 2011