Cinderalla Bulls Dancing Past Midnight ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by NoiseTrader, Apr 25, 2006.

  1. Does the end of rate increases (if true) mean a new leg up is dead ahead?

    Consider the following factoids:

    1. The period from November 1st to April 30th is seasonally the most bullish period for stock prices. We are in the last fraction of that period.

    2. Energy markets, which have energized the bids in the S&P, seasonally tend toward flat to lower between May and late Summer (which in today's environment may just mean they stop going parabolic). Energy stocks are weighted more heavily in the minds of traders than their 10% contribution to the value of the S&P would suggest.

    3. Laslo Byrinyi's study posted to TickerSense fleshes out the tendency over the last nine interest rate cycles for stock to FALL an average of 7% between the time of the last Fed tghtening to its first easing.

    4. The number crunchers over at Lowry's, are a bit worried 'cause their "selling pressure " is making new highs above last Oct '05, while their "buying pressure" has dropped below Oct '05 lows. This sort of persistent imbalance between buyers and sellers means the bull is being slowly led out to pasture.

    5. From 1950-2004, gains for the first 3 quarters of each year tend to cluster in the the 1st month of said quarter. The most bullish month of the 2nd Quarter is April, with an average gain of 1.3%; while May and June contribute meager gains (0.3% and 0.2% average gain respectively) -- April contributes a fat 72% of the average gain for the entire 2nd quarter and April is almost history.

    The variant perception in play here, is that the perceived probability of an extended run to new highs in the SPY (in the near-term) is wildly divergent from the actual probability, which smells like a trade to me.

    But, it’s hard to actually trade and manage SPY based on macro-factoids. I have to see bids break down first on some meaningful timeframe which I think occured in the mid-April break-down.

    Now I don't think shorting a stock index is ever easy, and this may nothing more than a tactical (short-term sort of trade) vs. something that I can hold for a while -- but I'm currently working a core short in the S&P (SPY and/or e-mini S&P futures) and looking for a place to add without taking too much heat.

    I'm still holding some Brazilian sotcks, long Gold, etc and also accumulating bio/health stocks for a rally so I'm only part-bear.

    PS: I send out a daily market briefing via PDF, be glad to send it to anyone; just drop me an email at my blog:

    Use the "Send me your BUY LIST" button, right-hand column at:
  2. NoiseTrader-----It's different this time.