CIA devalues Russia on purpose so India is ahead in GDP

Discussion in 'Economics' started by sanxo, Mar 26, 2012.

  1. 30-40% of our Nobel prize winners are foreign-born. We vastly outspend every country on research and technology.

    Continue your great Russian scientific research with Russian-only scientists. Maybe one day you guys will win the Nobel Prize in vodka making.

    <img src='http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jonbruner/files/2011/10/nobel_graphic_large.png'>
     
    #51     Mar 27, 2012
  2. sanxo

    sanxo



    nobel prices are pointless there are completely politically motivated, just look at japan one of the most productive economies having so less nobel prices?? They spent 4% on research every year its just a joke. Obama got even an nobel peace price for nothing. So russia as an american enemy getting more than japan as an us ally shows how good russian science is.

    you get nobel prices for making diabetes and obesity
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ0EnMzkO84
     
    #52     Mar 27, 2012
  3. bone

    bone

    This entire discussion is pointless - without hydrocarbons there is no Russian economy or technology drivers.

    No sane person would innovate or invent or take risk in a country where there is no legal structure to protect any of it.
     
    #53     Mar 27, 2012
  4. Like the idiot billionaire russian who doesn't even have a computer on his desk who bid in an illegal auction where he knew he'd win the old state enterprise steel worker at a ridiculous discount.

    Only a matter of time before Vlad steals from him, too.
     
    #54     Mar 27, 2012
  5. sanxo

    sanxo

    was that the point of my thread?? keep your low bird plans for your investment for your self no body cares.

    This thread was actually all about why cia downrated russias gdp just from nowhere not about russia itself. I wanted to discuss in an economic forum where people have some clue but it seems here are just some little trade kiddies.
     
    #55     Mar 27, 2012
  6. Sorry, in the whole crazy controversy over here about that Florida killing I completely forgot I'd participated in this thread.
    So, to reply: you're missing the point. The stats reflect improvements, no doubt, but you'd expect improvement in an era when commodities in general are doing well.
    There's a common thread here with the eurozone. The ECB winds up setting its interest rates, which of course go directly into setting the euro exchange rate, based mostly on what's happening in Germany, because Germany dominates the eurozone. This puts everyone else in the eurozone at a huge disadvantage, since that means interest and exchange rates, or to put it in a single phrase, the price of money, has only a coincidental relationship to the state of their economies.
    So too in Russia, in a different way, but a way which is very typical of supply regions. The price of money there will be set according to the needs of the commodity sector, simply because it dominates everything (export statistics by sector are here; notice that crude oil and petroleum are more than ten times higher than exports of machinery): high when commodities are riding high, low when they're not doing well. This starves the industrial and services sectors, killing the chances that the economy might have of developing other exports besides unfinished commodities.
    In the eurozone, Germany dominates and distorts the price of money. In Russia, commodities do it. In both cases, there isn't any other way it could be.
    In the US, the resources sector makes the country more self-sufficient, but it doesn't dominate everything. The US's biggest export is capital goods, which is thrown off naturally by the advanced state of development of its cities, not soybeans or corn or oil or natural gas. That means the industrial and services sector sets the price of money, and that means the US can develop new industries and new and more advanced services unimpeded by its very large commodities and agricultural sectors.
    Russia can escape its resources curse, but only if it does the following things:

    1 - Establishes a truly competitive political environment.
    2 - Establishes a tariff regime that favors the development of its industrial and services sectors.
    3 - Controls its currency so as to assist that tariff regime; that means keeping the currency weak, which of course will minimize the returns from the commodities sector.
    4 - Relaxes those tariffs at the point in the reasonably distant future when the industrial and services sectors start to dominate over the commodities sector.

    The chances of this happening? Not very high. It will be much much higher if the first condition is met, but that condition is very hard to meet in an economy dominated by raw commodities, because of what I said in my first post: the folks who sit on top of those resources aren't going to give up their domination easily.
    But if they don't, you can never get this process started.
    In the US, the Civil War destroyed the cotton, rice, and tobacco farmers in the South, allowing the industrial North to dominate and allowing the country to truly develop its economy.
    That's pretty much what it takes. Rivers of blood, years of darkness. Sorry, but that's just the way it is.
     
    #56     Mar 27, 2012
  7. #57     Mar 27, 2012
  8. d08

    d08

    You're free to register EliteEconomist.com if that's still available.
    You don't go to a sports car forum to talk about farm machinery, do you?
     
    #58     Mar 27, 2012
  9. bone

    bone

    Dolt: Read the CIA's commentary. Your motherland is run by thugs and gangsters who take whatever they want and do whatever they want. Honestly, who knows what the economy's metrics are, because all of it seems to be controlled by ex-KGB thugs. Intelligence demands that you read into the CIA's comments - not hard to do with a bit of lucid forethought. They are simply saying it's a crapshoot and it's all up for grabs and there's a very good reason why anyone who could flee Russia would.

    It seems like you can't accept simple economic principles for which your mother country is clearly lacking: that property rights and the infrastructure to support and enforce them are universally recognized by economic scholars as the central tenet to drive investment and innovation.

    And I attended the University of Chicago and studied the subject matter in Graduate School.

    Mother Russia has defaulted on her sovereign debt, she has confiscated legally titled property from outsided investors and companies, there are no intellectual property rights, there are no real estate rights, etc. etc. etc..

    Guess what the CIA uses to make their estimates - those kinds of legally binding documents !

    Workers of the world, unite !
     
    #59     Mar 27, 2012