CHRW - Huge Bulish Options Trade

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Jan 14, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    The company has traded nearly 34,000 options today in the first 2 hours on total daily average option volume of 2,088. 32,000 contracts were one 4 legged trade.

    The big 4 legged August trade was:
    Sell 12,000 50/65 strangles @ 3.275 (1.35 in calls + 1.925 in puts).
    Buy the 55/60 call stupid for 8.75 (5.65 in 55 strike calls + 3.10 in 60 strike calls).

    Total spread credit: 4000*100*$8.75 - 12,000*100*$3.275 = $430,000 credit

    Note the small OI on all lines - these were all opening.

    The trade is bullish. Analyzing a multi-leg trade is easiest done by separating he legs into smaller trades that make sense.

    Here's one way to analyze the trade.

    (1) Long 8,000 calls (4,000 55's and 4n000 60's), Short 12,000 calls (65's)
    (2) Sell 12,000 puts

    So it's a 1/1.5 call spread financed by a put sale. This is a bullish bet for a credit with downside risk and a limited upside reach.

    Max gain occurs at $65: $6,430,000
    Breakeven Low: ~$49.64
    Breakeven High: ~$81.07

    Clearly a bullish bet - with an expectation that stock goes to 65 (ish).
    Note the IV30&#8482 is above the HV&#8482. This trade does make money if the stock just sits.

    You can read details, prices, charts, trades on my blog here: