Chronicle of a Death Foretold ?

Discussion in 'Journals' started by jjrvat, Mar 5, 2007.

  1. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    15:30 GMT +1

    Trade 3

    1. 15:30 GMT+1 (131.42). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Long (Yes)

    2. Next news: 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories

    3. M2 BB hit? (yes)
    M2 RSI oversold? (no)
    Daily pivot hit? (R1 131.42 otherwise M10 36SMA ) (yes)

    Status: Waiting for extra confirmation "oversold" because the proximity to news

    jjrvat
     
    #81     Mar 7, 2007
  2. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    15:51 GMT +1

    Trade 3

    1. 15:51 GMT+1 (131.42). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Long (Yes)

    2. Next news: 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories

    3. M2 BB hit? (yes)
    M2 RSI oversold? (no)
    Daily pivot hit? (R1 131.42 otherwise M10 36SMA ) (yes)

    Status: Waiting the next 10 mins for extra confirmation "oversold" otherwise cancel trade

    jjrvat
     
    #82     Mar 7, 2007
  3. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    16:00 GMT +1

    Trade 3 CANCELLED
    Reasons:

    1 hour in 8 point channel around pivot 131.42. Too long

    2. Never reach oversold RSI, neither move up enough to discard the trade.

    Random comments:

    1. Could have gone for two 5 pips trades 15:04 and 15:48 (all confirmation ok except RSI that was really close to oversold). With 7 pip profits already taken today I should have taken the risk ... Or maybe not ....

    jjrvat
     
    #83     Mar 7, 2007
  4. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    16:11 GMT +1

    Random comments:

    1. With one winner, one losser and one half failed and half didnt pull the trigger on time, I will wait for a clear entry in the next hour or so otherwise call the day.


    jjrvat
     
    #84     Mar 7, 2007
  5. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    ARGGG price 131.60 (16:22PM) ... 18 points !!!
     
    #85     Mar 7, 2007
  6. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    16:42 GMT +1

    1. Crude Oil Inventories (-4.8M). To be honest I dont know how to evaluate the short term impact of this negative news on the eur/usd pair.

    2. But Seeing all charts, it seems that usd/eur is overbought in every one of those M240, M60, M30, M15, M10, M5, M2, M1 and the next pivot point comes at 131.65, plus a M10 MACD divergence is forming.

    3. I am not sure in the short term to go long.

    Status: step aside
     
    #86     Mar 7, 2007
  7. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    18:25 GMT +1 (131.52)

    1. Nice triple M10 MACD divergence forming but US aproaching to choppy hours.

    2. I step aside for 2 hours and I missed a perfect entry point to go long again 17:00... i guess i was scare of the overbought signals in all periods.

    Status: About to close but i´m going to give it a try to see what happen with the M10 MACD divergence

    jjrvat
     
    #87     Mar 7, 2007
  8. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    18:41 GMT +1 UPDATE !!!

    Trade 3

    1. 18:41 GMT+1 (131.61). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Short** macd DIVERGENCE (Yes)

    3. M2 BB hit? (yes)
    M2 RSI overBOUGHT? (yes)
    Daily pivot hit? (yes)

    Status: short 131.61
    jjrvat
     
    #88     Mar 7, 2007
  9. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    18:50 GMT +1 UPDATE !!! 131.55

    Trade 3

    Because this is a macd divergence I am going to use the WMA exit. Whatever come first 8 point or the cross back
    jjrvat
     
    #89     Mar 7, 2007
  10. jjrvat

    jjrvat

    Today March 7 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

    18:57 GMT +1 UPDATE !!!

    Trade 3

    1. 18:41 GMT+1 (131.61). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Short** macd DIVERGENCE (Yes)

    3. M2 BB hit? (yes)
    M2 RSI overBOUGHT? (yes)
    Daily pivot hit? (yes)

    Status: YESSS exit at 131.53 (18:56) Reason: hit 8 pips

    jjrvat
     
    #90     Mar 7, 2007