Scataphagos why do you have me on block? Wanted to ask you some questions and laud you for your detailed analysis.
Generally, technical analysis is not about why, but how. I never asked you about why, but how. When ES was at 4025 (the time of my post), you could make a decision. Long, flat (don't enter any trades) or short. If it's really Christmas in March for your method you should easily be able to give a real time demonstration next week. Attributing a story to price moves in hindsight is very different from trading the same chart in real time. Thank you.
In hindsight analysis, who doesn't have 20/20 vision? What's happened is not important. As they say, quit indulging yourself with the past and move on. Otherwise, the future becomes meaningless.
Scat, what you say makes sense, but there are obstacles. There are numerous time frames and numerous S/R levels. Are you saying (and I think you are) you only pay attention to S/R levels according to the tf you are trading? So, then it becomes difficult to answer someone who asks: "What's your call right now, go long or short?" Well the answer is: "In my time frame I may want to go long, but in your tf you may want to go short" and then go into an explanation on your timeframe which may vary according to your and mkt conditions.
The answer is there are only probabilities, no definites in trading. My call is, on a daily basis, SPX is not out of the woods yet, so expect volatility surprises.