Chop vs. Trend

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by Yag, May 1, 2005.

  1. It's like many other indicators: nice to look at after the facts; impossible to wring money out of it by applying kiddy rules.
    #11     May 19, 2005
  2. NN. Anything numerical is numerological. Or is that numerillogical? Mike.
    #12     May 19, 2005
  3. kut2k2


    If a trader is going to follow the trend, it makes sense to first find the trend. The eff ratio works a heckuva lot better than arbitrary MA crossovers. :cool:
    #13     May 19, 2005
  4. FredBloggs

    FredBloggs Guest


    i bet you have a moustache and wear a black leather cap! (with a silver chain of course!)
    #14     May 19, 2005
  5. effkay


    Take a look at guppy moving averages, they tend to be quite useful in identifiying trend.
    #15     May 21, 2005
  6. I know it's better than nothing, but it's technically inefficient. You'll always be late with that kind of indicator...
    #16     May 21, 2005
  7. effkay


    Isn't that the point of trend trading? Late in late out, catch the big part of the move? So getting in late should never worry a trend follower in my opinion.
    #17     May 21, 2005
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. You're full of dreams my dear ! This theory would be great if the market was 'trending' most of the time, but it actually doesn't ! For one big 'trend' you'll catch, you will get burned 10 times and loose in the average.

    Well tried.
    #18     May 21, 2005
  9. effkay


    Well that's a problem with trend following techniques, and not my idea. It is however very possible to trade trends provided the market you trade trends well. I think this is the problem with most trend followers, they don't pick their markets well. Anyhow all markets are trending on some timeframe. Take a look at the S&P weekly chart, can you see any trends?!
    #19     May 21, 2005
  10. Identifying a naturally 'trendy' market and identifying a 'trending now' market is a different thing.

    The first is easier to do : computing autocorrelation and persitence is very easy. However, these autocorrelations/persitences are not large enough to counter slippage, spread and transaction costs. But this is of course something nobody selling TA service will tell you.
    #20     May 21, 2005
    Oysteryx likes this.