My question: Will the US political parties wait until after Dec 21 to sign a fiscal cliff agreement? After all, years ago, we heard mankind would be taken out by all sorts of scenarios this year ....... two in particular, a mayan calendar maker who was laid off in a hostile corporate takeover and sunspot peaks gone wild. Wouldn't it be prudent for the cliffhangers to wait at least until Dec 22 in order to preserve their political "principles"? Thoughts?
It really doesn't matter what the Mayan calendar says about Dec 21. I just looked at my calendar and it ends on Dec 31. So one of them is ten days off. Either way we are screwed.
How does one play the Dec 21 end-of-the-world event. My initial thought was of a calendar spread (for obvious reasons). Initially I thought of going all-in on Dec SPY puts but there is a technical issue because it is an options expiry date. The Mayans didn't specify a time as far as I know. So if you buy cheap Dec 21 puts they might finish out of the money or in the money depending on the exact event time. If you go a month out, who will clear them for you? And what if the event was only where the Mayans lived, like a super giant earthquake in their home town into the sea. This would make sense because there could be a tough time selling Mayan long calendars in other parts of the empire, like to the Romans. Maybe this is why the calendar maker was laid off as the market dropped out from under the calendar business. How does a good trader manage his risk/reward on this particular options trade - Any suggestions?
"The Treasury anticipates that borrowing will reach the current limit near the end of December 2012. However, because the Treasury can take certain âextraordinary measuresâ that it has used previously when borrowing reached or approached the debt limit, CBO expects that the department will be able to continue funding government activities without an increase in the debt limit until mid-February or early March. " http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43737
There is no play on anything at the moment. If you think about it the whole concept of money is under threat so even if you make money you can hold on to the value of it. Also other assets can be confiscated by governments which will be next. The best thing you can do is have good skills and perhaps ownership rights to intellectual work. That will hold out against inflation. Thought and skills are the only two real things that will maintain value.