The hallmark of bearishness*... is "price pattern of lower lows and lower highs". We have that now, so caution/discipline advised for dip buyers. *Markets behave bearishly during.... 1. Genuine bear markets 2. Corrections to bull markets 3. Downswing in trading range markets. FWIW...
I'd say general conditions have shifted from neutral-bullish to bearish over the last 3-4 months. Aside from the trade war (which it seems won't be resolved soon), bonds are flashing a cycle-end warning and the leading sector (unicorns) is looking wobbly. All we need now to confirm a turn is for the Fed to cut rates.
it's really just a matter of time frames right... anyway on the short side I'd not stay for too long.... that pop from Jan to March will have long lasting effects..
This is not a genuine bear market. (However, we are only 1 major headline away for a 5% decline.) I do not know what the difference is between a bull market corrections and a downswing in trading range? Something is going on? There is some relationship between the price of crude and the stock market. I do not know what it is. Slight upside bias - . (However, we are only 1 major headline away for a 5% decline.) Would stay very nimble here. Take small profits quickly.
Couple of things coming up in the not too distant future that could dampen the dip... 1) The next FOMC is June 18-19. Will they hint that cuts are more likely now? That'll certainly help the bull case if they do. We'll probably get some front running into that whether merited or not. 2) Trump meets with Xi-Jinping at the G20 summit in Japan on June 28. That should get front-run too, regardless of the negative optics that will surely be spun by the "financial experts". Not calling a bottom here, but we may be close near term. Maybe one one more hard spike down? But as these dates approach, we should start creeping up off any lows we may see set this week or next. That is of course barring any (off the wall) Tweets. 6/12 might be the (D-Day) to go long. 6/14 for sure... that'll be an interesting Friday.
May not be much in magnitude. The difference is that in a trading range, you know you're in it... likely have been for a while, back and forth. Once you see that buy the bottom of the range... sell the top of the range. But expect the rally phase to act like a mini-bull and the decline phase to act like a mini-bear. (Years ago the market spent more time in a trading range that it does these days. Exception being the BIG trading ranges that some issues have shown to be in over the last 3-5 years.) And of course, "go with the flow" when the market breaks out of the range.