Chipotle (CMG) Analysis:

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by BulkCity, Mar 30, 2006.

  1. BulkCity


    Hey all! First post here. Got that out of the way now let's get down to business.

    I've invested in CMG as soon as I could (when it hit the secondary mkt).

    I have done a little bit of fundamental analysis on the company and was wondering what everyone thought. Who's in it? exit strategy? surprises? where is it going, etc.

    Here's my research: (10k on 3-16-06)

    my mouth was salivating while reading that more than it does when I'm in the restaurant!!

    look at these #'s!!
    Year Ended
    December 31,
    ----------------- Increase/ % Increase/
    2005 2004 (Decrease) (Decrease)
    ------- ------- ------------ -----------
    (in millions, except percentages)
    Restaurant sales $ 625.1 $ 468.6 $ 156.5 33.4 %
    Food, beverage and packaging costs 202.3 154.1 48.1 31.2
    Labor costs 178.7 139.5 39.2 28.1
    Occupancy costs 47.6 36.2 11.4 31.6
    Other operating costs 83.0 64.3 18.7 29.1
    General and administrative expenses 52.0 44.8 7.1 15.9
    Depreciation and amortization. 28.0 21.8 6.2 28.5
    Pre-opening costs 2.0 2.2 (0.2 ) (10.1 )
    Loss on disposal of assets 3.1 1.7 1.4 85.9
    Net interest expense 0.8 - 0.8 n/m *
    Benefit for income taxes 7.5 - 7.5 n/m *THAT IS SEXY!!

    Many are predicting that 2nd qtr #'s will beat ee's (.21)

    however - cramer says to SELL this stock...

    but look at these revenue estimates:
    Revenue Est avg est.
    Mar-06 177.9 M
    Jun-06 197.5 M
    Dec-06 790.16 M
    Dec-07 939.00M

    from june to dec... HUGE HUGE JUMP!! IMO that is really hard to calculate (although I know it will be adjusted as time goes by); therefore, with some solid analysis on your own you can possibly buy this stock cheap right now.

    I'll go more in depth with my research when I have more time... I have other stocks to tend to

    I'm not sure if I should take some profits now or wait till the 2nd qtr... I beileve it will beat EE (.21) and just keep rolling from there (possibly split). Timing of the sale has ALWAYS been the hardest part for me.

    Let me know what you guys think!
  2. Seems that you already own it and are considering to dump it, why ask us?