I'm barely positive with commision around 2.5 pips from a total of +4 pips. I'm trying to cool off a little to not get into overtrading; but I just couldn't see me ending the day with 20+ pips negative ... I must say I got really lucky with that big slide down, otherwise I would have been in another state of mind right now. I can't complain over performance the last months trading EuroFX, but I don't like to take a heavily leveraged 20+ pip loss anyhow. I only started trading after the LI numbers because I missed the opening today, and US equities open didn't seem that interesting when even the unemployment number didn't do squat for trading. The combination of action and the lack of action during periods the last few days do build up some frustration, and if there are more corpaorate hedgers in the market things could get even better.
I already overtraded trying to catch a directional move. Today's sweet level seems to be 1.2315 for the spot. If the crude doesn't move much we might see that level again.
Yes, there are not many indications that the market will get into some big trends, so overtrading trying to find the direction is a danger. There have been some comments on Thomson /IFRMarkets yesterday and earlier today on this: [13:45 GMT 23rd Sept] UK and Swiss names have been the driving force behind the gradual rise in [EUR/USD] today but with sellers lining up between 1.2325 and 1.2350 the path higher looks pretty jammed. [EUR/USD] traders are once again looking to settle back into the comfortable range-trading that has dominated their books for summer months after the latest false-dawn of a 1.2000-1.2400 range break. With little event-risk now seen until the FOMC next meet after a quick break there could now be little in the pipeline that forces a move out of either boundary. Market have looked frustrated today and talk is now of EUR rallies being USD bear traps that only find fresh selling as trading approaches the plethora of option barriers as you get into the 1.2400"s. However the matters at hand for [EUR/USD] are the lumpy offers at 1.2325/50 and how to overcome them. The pair is most likely to see a period of consolidation around the 1.2300 mark before building momentum for a retest. US data today in the form of jobless claims has not moved the markets and the 14:00 GMT release of US leading indicators is also not likely to add volatility either. [14:17 EUR/JPY: Japan Consumption Tax Rumors Add To JPY Weakness] San Francisco, September 23rd: EUR/JPY continues to find support near 136.00 currently with rumors of a rise in Japanese consumption tax a factor that is being cited behind the JPY weakness this week. A government tax panel began discussions on Tuesday on tax reform with the Finance Ministry said to be moving towards abolishing the tax reduction of Y3.3 tln instituted in 1999. This is estimated to add Y290,000 annually to each workers tax burden with a direct impact seen on personal consumption. This would be the first significant tax increase in the post-war period. Given existing concerns that Japan"s economy is already slowing, this potential tax increase is adding to the JPY selling. EUR/JPY resistance is at 136.50/60 and morning highs, with support at 135.80. [14:47 EUR/JPY: Oil News; Hedge Funds; N. Korea, Again ] San Francisco, September 23rd: As noted in the 13:25 GMT comment, the talk of releasing oil reserves was already weighing on EUR/JPY and the cross has edged lower on the headlines on this subject, falling to current levels of 135.72/75. There are also rumors of hedge fund losses that are said to be circulating in the market. Some dealers tied this to concerns noted yesterday on Fannie Mae accounting issues. This may also be linked to the fall in hedge fund manager stocks yesterday. Man Group was a major focus after a downgrade to equal-weight for their stocks from Morgan Stanley with the stock 16% below its highs. Man is the largest publicly traded hedge-fund company. A number of other hedge fund stocks were sold in sympathy. Finally, the N. Korea story continues with Korean language paper Yonhap threatening to turn Japan into a "nuclear sea-of-fire" if the US attacks N. Korea with nuclear weapons. USD/JPY has stalled near the lows this morning with follow-through to morning losses limited so far. [14:42 EUR/USD: Bids Emerge At 1.2285/90] Boston, September 23: EUR/USD has regained its footing after tripping some small stops on the drop back below 1.2300. Talk that the US Department of Energy is mulling swapping some crude to US refiners is helping unwind some of the oil plays that have been put on in recent days, EUR/JPY chief among them. More stops are seen below 1.2280 but 1.2230 bids remain on dips. 1.2330 remains toppish near-term as Asian and European central banks sell the rallies.
I bought this last dip too. I'm getting dizzy today! Yesterday and today US sessions have been quite tiring.
I watched WizardTrader's EuroFX journal, and he got into a similar short like me and stopped out when it went up. The difference was that I made a few shorts after that on the way down, and got lucky on the the big slide. But I gotta say I was wondering about calling it quits for the day, but perhaps since it was early trading for the day I made a decision to trade the action a little more. It's kind of "breaking the rules", though when running up losses equalling or surpassing a typical day's profits. It seems many traders resigned after the whopping whipping action. We'll probably see them back in later in the session. And after the japanese holiday with US traders in action during the asian session, we might see some spicier trading there too tonight. Gotta let that posts# stay there a little - kind of reminds me of some of the ES orderbook "signalling" earlier this year where someone would toggle the number of contracts to display an imposing number - and then some action started. Makes one wonder though. Changing the depth could actually be used to do some signalling if recognition functions were implemented and synced .. The danger is when someone figures that out and copies it. Some remarks after the FOMC statement: http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...urce_shorttake/year/2004/weekly/39/index.html (mainpage www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html - I always start the day by reading here.) excerpt: WHERE ARE THE SIGNS OF REGAINED TRACTION? According to the Fed statement (and Greenspan's testimony of a few weeks ago), "output growth appears to have regained some traction." Well, perhaps we should look at some key indicators to see how much traction we have. The index of industrial production inched up 0.1 percent in August after gaining 0.6 percent in July; the index had declined 0.3 percent in June. Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.9 percent in July; sales had decreased 0.7 percent in June. Excluding the volatile auto component, retail sales rose 0.2 percent in June and August, 0.3 percent in July. Personal disposable income rose 0.1 percent in July after a 0.2 percent hike in June. Monthly income growth had averaged 0.5 percent between January and May. Housing starts increased in July and August after declining in June when mortgage rates had increased sharply. Mortgage rates have since declined in July, August and early September. Other than improvement in housing starts, it is hard to find much traction in these indicators. The monthly manufacturing surveys from the regional Feds moderated significantly in August, as did the two ISM surveys. Perhaps Greenspan and colleagues were focusing on the improvement in the labor market. Indeed, nonfarm payroll employment managed to increase nearly 150,000 in August after recording monthly gains of not quite 100,000 in both June and July. Typically, a rise in employment will translate into faster income growth - and that eventually leads to accelerated spending on retail sales. But judging from historical standards, there is no question that even the August payroll gain was pathetic. The Fed's rate hikes have little to do with economic activity and everything to do with the fact that the fed funds rate target after inflation adjustment has been negative for too long - for 25 out of the past 26 months. The rate needs to be adjusted to prevent this year's high energy prices from triggering wider price pressures and an inflationary spiral. Though core inflation is tame, it could begin to accelerate given easy credit conditions and ongoing supply shocks in important commodities. Fed policy makers are predicting that economic activity will grow at a healthy rate in the third and fourth quarters. Economic activity was robust in the second half of 2003 as well as the first quarter of 2004, but activity moderated in the second quarter as consumer spending came nearly to a standstill. Consumers were certainly hit by sticker shock at the gas pump. Gasoline prices have come down from their highs and consumers are becoming more accustomed to spending roughly $2/gallon.
For me, there's a daily $ loss threshold and once I'm over it then it becomes very dangerous. Either I end up breakeven or lose much more. The "risk/reward" for this situation is against me. I really have to watch out. I burned myself many times and it's my #1 weakness. I'm not sure what you mean about changing the depth in the orderbook. Is it like what Flipper did in Eurex? By the way, I'm at breakeven now minus the commissions. My P/L shows $ -0.002861 :eek: Bizarre!
Refco is displaying 1.2302 , FXCM 1.2295 and december EuroFX futures at 1.2291 ... Wow, they're really playing with people's money now. There has been several of this divergences the last minutes. SaxoBank more along FXCM too. Refco were bad boys there. There are some issues with the latest TWS release and P/L showings. It won't be fixed until october sometime. Yes, it's showing big size - but also "special numbers" - like "666". When size is withdrawn or added to a level, someone would withdraw or add to that level to balance the offset and toggle into showing "666" again. Sometimes, that would be a harbinger for some move in the opposite direction. It was quite funny, and happened on the ES some months back.
Interesting. I didn't know about these special numbers. I guess somebody with ego is trying to prove something... I only have IB and Tradestation spot FX quotes. TS is not bad-- it's usually within 1-2 ticks of IB.
The daily chart is showing some interesting pattern for the last two days. Yesterday's close was on the upper trendline and so is today's low. To me it looks like the trendline is broken but of course I won't bet on it.