CME EuroFX RTH (Regular Trading Hours) , asian open - sometimes european open (around 04:00 local time here).
Looking at the 60-min charts it seems that Euro is bounded between 1.2250-1.2300 and 1.2150 and most likely it'll stay that way until the 14:15 EST FOMC announcement. Given the wild action at the NFP and lots of slippage (at least on the forex sides) what are you expecting?
The FED will 'for certain' make a 25 point move, right? Will negative comments about future interest rates be enough to get USD down, despite the 25 move? Otherwise, long USD is a good position?
Like they said on Bloomberg TV, any rise in the oil price might lead to a negative interpretation of the FOMC decision. My plan is to watch the action and look for quick opportunities. Playing a position with something like FOMC decison or NFP (NonFarmPayrolls) number is mostly suicidal or just lucky most times I think. There are short-term effects to the market, and trades should be short-term as well - or one could wait and see for a longer term opportunity. Trying to decide a long term position based on volatile actions over a short time span reuires a lot of insight I would assume - deciding if positions will have been caught short or long with obvious repercussions. Most times speculative positions are looking for the non-obvious opportunities, that means they many times "get in too early" and might be negative in a trade. But for longer term traders it's down to proper statistics and analysis to decide where markets could move based on the important events. Reading the outcome of market reactions to these events can give the final clues, but without proper preparedness and background information - you would just act upon short term reactions; nothing reliable to build a long term position, I think. [22:36 EUR/USD: Clear Range Defined Ahead Of FOMC] Sydney, September 21: The EUR/USD came under pressure in London in thin trading and retested support around 1.2120/25. The subsequent bounce has validated this level as key support in the short-term. Hourly resistance between 1.2180/90 should be difficult to breach during the Asian session and Friday"s spike high around 1.2220 should contain attempts higher ahead of the FOMC statement late in Tuesday"s U.S. session. The FOMC statement should set the tone for the rest of the week. Analysts feel that a dovish statement would be USD bearish and an upbeat statement with an implicit commitment to further rate hikes would be USD bullish. The likely scenario is that the statement will be viewed as neutral. We feel that a neutral statement would result in the USD edging lower without coming off too hard. We are looking for the EUR/USD to trade in a 1.2155/85 range in Asia today. The EUR/USD trades 1.2167/72.
I know a few people in the business and they are calling a short in the pair EUR/USD from around 1.2166-70.
I couldn't help myself but entered in a short trade close to the top. But I think this is a "healthy" pullback here. Stop is at breakeven currently so the question is to run or not to run with 7-8 ticks of profit....I'll wait little bit more and see. Chinook
Just to try and recap some of the action this morning. [13:32 EUR/JPY: Weak Nikkei Helps Underpin Cross] San Francisco, September 21st: EUR/JPY remains supported at 134.67/71 with little pullback seen so far. 135.00/10 remains key resistance with this area finding resistance from prior highs, the top of the Ichimoku cloud and the upward trend line since April. One factor seen aiding JPY weakness is the decline in the Nikkei tied to position adjustment ahead of the fiscal year end. The index, which was close to making a bullish break higher above the Ichimoku cloud on the stock charts, is now just barely holding above the base of the cloud. A break under the cloud would bode for fresh Nikkei weakness and weigh on the JPY. EUR/JPY offers remain at 135.00 and just ahead of that level. <pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ] | [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION] : 1.2465(M) |daily high Jul 19 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at] : 1.2385(M) |hourly highs Aug 16, 17 |flat on a failure | [1.2270] : 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |flat on a failure | : 1.2310(S) |high Sep 10, trendline |buy a break above |Open|21/09/04 [1.2260] 13:50 GMT TUE 21 SEP : | TIME 14 38| : 1.2220(M) |hourly support Sept 21 |buy a bounce | | : 1.2180(M) |previous range top Sept 21|buy a bounce |TGT | : 1.2120(M) |daily low Sept 16 |sell a break below |Stop| : 1.2090(M) |1% MA band base |cover on a bounce | ============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre> 46 pts profit booked on the long trade as price rallied through the 1.2270 resistance level but was rejected just above and ahead of the target level at 1.2310. Hourly studies are now beginning to topple from overbought levels and there is risk for pullbacks toward sthe 1.2220 level again. The daily charts re bullish and buying dips is now the favored strategy. [13:27 EUR/USD: Holding Above 1.2250 Strike Ahead Of Expiry] Boston, September 21: EUR/USD is becalmed around 1.2265, holding above 1.2250 where there are sizeable expiries at 14:00 GMT. Asia, US and European names are selling on rallies to 1.2280, some option-related, some profit-taking and some establishing fresh shorts, dealers say. More selling is seen ahead of 1.2300 and 1.2350 exotics. Dips should be limited to the 1.2235/40 area ahead of 14:00 GMT owing to the options cut. [13:04 EUR/USD: ECB Reserves Unchanged in Week To Sept. 17th] San Francisco, September 21st: ECB reserves are virtually unchanged in the week to Sept. 17th with reserves holding steady at EUR171.5 bln. Prior to this week, reserves had seen seven weeks of decline totaling EUR2.6 bln. [12:38 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Vol Rally Extends - Large 1.2250 Expiry] London, September 21: 1mth implied option volatility has extended its climb from yesterday"s 21-month low of 8.2/8.4 to a fresh peak of 8.55/8.75 on the back of spot"s latest topside push. Key 1mth resistance is located at 8.85/9.1 (summer high), with prospects for a test/break of the indication increasing if the underlying continues north through the 1.2300 exotic barrier level. Further exotic barriers reside above 1.2300, inclusive of triggers located at 1.2350, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2545, and 1.2550. Expiry-wise: a large 1.2250 plain-vanilla option rolls off at today"s NY cut (14:00GMT), alongside a 1.2200 strike. [12:30 EUR/USD: Asian Offers Rumored At 1.2280, Stops Below 1.2250] Boston, September 21: Dealers report Asian central bank offers at the 1.2280. With specs long near the top of the range, stops below 1.2250 look increasingly vulnerable. [12:26 EUR/USD: CTAs Scooping Offers Early] Boston, September 21: EUR/USD is on march in early US trade with CTAs among the more active buyers. Buying rallies has been a very poor strategy of late, so keep an eye an eye on stops below the 1.2250 level if the rally fizzles. 1.2295 is next resistance. [12:08 EUR/USD: Consolidating Gains after Unexpected Breakout] Boston, September21: Many expected a sleepy session in the run-up to the FOMC meeting this afternoon, but a sharp rally caught most by surprise. Better than expected current account data along with media reports that Al Qaida is planning a "spectacular" attack on US soil between now and Inauguration day in January helped spark the rebound. Asian central bank sales were absorbed in the 1.2210 area with EUR/USD tripping stops in the 1.2225/30 area on the way to 1.2265. Options-related buying helped fuel the sharp advance as many were positioned for quiet ranges. The 200-day moving average lies just overhead at 1.2266 while further selling is seen in the 1.2295/1.2310 window. [09:21 EUR/USD: Offers at 1.2210 Cap Good Cross-Border Interest] London, September 21: The bout of short-covering in [EUR/USD] that has driven price action higher this morning has found large offers at 1.2210 to cap any further rise. Any break higher would see very limited gains and would be unlikely to find the stops above 1.2225. With the offers up to 1.2220 reported to be lumpy the cross-border interest is beginning to subside and we should now see the overbought levels begin to correct and trading flat-line or look to consolidate around 1.2200. [10:37 EUR/USD: OECD Raises Eurozone Growth Forecast But Cuts US Rate] London, September 21: The OECD have recently cut the US growth forecast for 2004 from 4.7% to 4.3% and to add to the ailing USD worries the Eurozone has seen its 1.6% estimate upped to 2.0%. [EUR/USD] is matching move with cable and as the dollar fights-back against Sterling, [EUR/USD] is seeing a similar pullback. Offers at 1.2260 are stalling gains for now but as the move nears the one-cent mark it now has the option related defense around 1.2280 back to 1.2300 firmly in it's sights. [10:02 EUR/USD: 1.2220 Caves In, Stops Tripped, 1.2260 Eyed] London, September 21: US investment house led buying has forced [EUR/USD] through the stop-loss orders from a Frankfurt name at 1.2225. The price then found good follow through and has surged up to an intraday high of 1.2244. Offers and stops at 1.2260 are now eyed but we also see offers at 1.2150 ahead of today"s expiries at the NY cut. The large 1.2250 expiry today could limit the upside ahead of the FOMC but rampant trading is now trying to force ahead and put pressure on the topside of some exotic options at 1.2300. [EUR/USD] currently works 1.2235-45. Deutsche Bank this morning: EUR-Sentiment: Greenspan holds sway. EUR USD (1.2175) Yesterdayâs softer development in European trading was completely reversed during the NY session. The euro recovered from a 1.2125 low to close practically unchanged on the day at 1.2175. Yesterdayâs EUR-Sentiment Survey revealed that not only are medium-term traders fixated by the ongoing sideways evolution of the euro, but that they are probably also concerned that Mr Greenspan will deliver a dovish statement following todayâs expected rate hike. The survey recorded higher optimism â essentially by default, as short-covering during last weekâs price decline resulted in fewer pessimist on board. However, this short-covering took place in the middle of the zone that they perceive as the current trading range and some 200-pips away from the level that is generally accepted as the lower border. So, why the hurry? After all, they had already run the gauntlet of US trade, retail sales and capital flows data. This behaviour points to the forthcoming FOMC meeting as an important juncture for them. Whatever the reason for their precipitation, medium-term demand in the centre of the range has been âborrowedâ from lower levels. These are profittakers who would have bought nearer to the lower border, but for one reason or another, chose to do so at current prices. This development heightens our concern about the eventual quality of demand near $1.20 (where everyone expects it). A break below 1.2110 would already be negative for the euro. In this case, 1.1980 might be merely a pausing point on the way to 1.1850. On the upside, a break of 1.2410 remains the prerequisite for bullishness.
I wonder which exchange these FX options are traded at. I took a look at CME website and it doesn't look like the options mentioned are CME products. Chinook