Yes, I know what you mean. I got whipped into a fluffy cream around the 1.22 break - but have since recouperated. Took a little break after the breakeven and now I'm even more surprised ... [14:22 EUR/JPY: Investment Flows To Asia Still Helping JPY] San Francisco, September 15th: The Nikkei fell overnight, preventing the index once again, from breaking through the top of the Ichimoku cloud. But, further evidence of strong investment flows to Asia are still seen helping to cap EUR/JPY. In China, non-deliverable forwards rose to reported highs of 2700/2500 and the highest levels since April seen just after the G-7 meeting. Further revaluation speculation aided the rise as did comments overnight from US Treasury Sec"y Snow calling for China to adopt a more flexible exchange rate. Speculation is increasing of a currency or interest rate move at the National Day holiday in October just prior to the G-7. In addition, China"s stock indices had their largest increases in at least 20 months as funds flow to the region. Mirroring this trend, the Indian Rupee rose to a two month high. The THB and INR both rose to seven week highs and in addition, both their stock markets rallied in tandem with the flow of funds. This is seen helping to limit JPY weakness against the EUR. The cross continues to hover around 134.00 with offers building at 134.50. [13:40 EUR/USD: Blasts Through Stops Below 1.2190 On Second Attempt] Boston, September 15: EUR/USD rebounds were limited to the 1.2220 area after the industrial production data prompting stale longs to pull the plug and push EUR/USD through the 1.2190 area, tripping another round of stops. 1.2160 is next support. 1.2172 is the low thus far. More stops are eyed below 1.2160. [13:20 EUR/USD: Pops After Industrial Production] Boston, September 15: EUR/USD rallies in the wake of the industrial production report. The report is a bit of a mixed bag, weaker in August (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.4%) than expectations but revised higher for July (+0.6% from +0.4%). Don"t be surprised that in the follow-up reporting there is a hurricane component to the IP dip. Large swaths of Florida were out of commission for weeks after Charley and Frances. <pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ] | [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION] : 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at] : 1.2305(S) |high Sep 10, t/l |buy a break above | [1.2292] : 1.2260(M) |failure high Sept 15 |sell a failure | : 1.2225(M) |hourly resistance Sept 15 |sell a failure |Open|14/09/04 [1.2178] 14:20 GMT WED 15 SEP : | TIME 14 11| : 1.2160(M) |daily low Sept 9 |sell a break below | | : 1.2115(M) |failure highs Sept 7 |cover on a bounce |TGT | : 1.2030(M) |pullback low Sept 8 |cover on a bounce |Stop| : 1.1990(M) |daily low Aug 30 |sell a break below | ============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre> 1.2205 gives into downside pressures as the slide continues and with hourly studies continuing to tick south there is scope for a move to the next support level at 1.2160. Daily charts as well are beginning to roll over and now looking for opportunities to establish short trades. Would prefer to sell into strength intraday opposed to breaks.
I know. I almost never hold positions before news and I don't usually get pissed like this. But I think I'm seeing effects of overtrading from Tuesday day session. It created too much self-talk. Indeed Eur seems to be heading towards 1.2. Chinook
Yeah the more convinced the market gets that the range is in play the more confidently they'll act right up until the range itself. Its quite possible that is gets sold aggressively now all the way down to bottom of the range. Probably not today though
Remember this week is also expected to be quite volatile because of expirations. [14:34 EUR/USD: Real Money Buyers Spotted Near 1.2160] Boston, September 15: Real money accounts have been seen buying EUR/USD around the 1.2160 level, helping steady EUR/USD after a brief dip below support. Heavy European government debt issuance in the Eurozone this week should see some flows from this side of the pond. Approximately EUR 15 bln in paper comes to market this week. 1.2190 and 1.2220 are resistance now on rallies, 1.2160 and 1.2110/15 are supports. [14:38 GMT 15th Sept] With the release of the NY Fed"s Empire State Manufacturing survey showing a rebound today for September to 28.34, compared to 13.22 a month earlier [EUR/USD] has fallen. The August reading was also revised higher from 12.57 previously reported and upon this news spec players simply rubbed their hands. On the first test stops at 1.2190 remained intact but with rising treasury yields prompting further USD buying a further slide looked ominous and stop loss orders were activated on the push lower back to the intraday low of 1.2160. Real money buyers are touted at 1.2150 if the slide continues to ignore oversold conditions and drive lower and with few technical resistance points in the 1.2100"s the slide could then find the low 1.2100"s before momentum begins to wane. A large exotic 1.2000-1.2300 DNT now looks to limit trading in the longer-term as traders begin to feel that the recent move higher moved too far too soon. If the run up to the FOMC next Tuesday the USD is finding not only fresh support but an amount of timely form where data is concerned to bolster it so we now favour further downside moves towards 1.2000.
DON'T FEEL BAD. I missed it too. I was busy working on my program and missed the overbought indicator reading so I was supposed to be short at 1.2213 but I got sidetracked after the previous days loss. I will probably be out of the mkt until next week since I will be working double shifts at the Airport for the next 3 days.
Yes, it's the quad witching week. But I'm not very familiar with FX options. Are they expiring too this week? Chinook
I'm not sure about all the option codes etc. but there's something here for ECU4W3-OOF ... http://www.cme.com/clr/clring/calen...eign+Exchange&product=EC&year=2004&view=print .. but it seems like the weekly expiring options. Hedgers might have other commitments, though .. Check out the chapter in the "The Eurodollar Futures and Options Handbook" http://www.cme.com/prd/ir/eurodollarhandbook4749.html The EURUSD seem to have been a technical victim with the range doldrums after the NFP. I'm waiting for the dust to settle a little now. <pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ] | [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION] : 1.2305(S) |high Sep 10, t/l |buy a break above | [FLAT at] : 1.2260(M) |failure high Sept 15 |sell a failure | [1.2292] : 1.2225(M) |hourly resistance Sept 15 |sell a failure | : 1.2205(M) |daily low Sep 10 |sell a failure |Open|14/09/04 [1.2139] 15:20 GMT WED 15 SEP : | TIME 14 11| : 1.2135(M) |61.8% of 1.2030-1.2310 |buy bounce, sell break | | : 1.2115(M) |failure highs Sept 7 |cover on a bounce |TGT | : 1.2030(M) |pullback low Sept 8 |cover on a bounce |Stop| : 1.1990(M) |daily low Aug 30 |take profit, sell break | ============|==========================|=========================|============= </pre> Intraday slide now nearing the final nearby retracement support at 1.2135. Prices are oversold intraday but we do not yet have a reversal buy signal. On the daily timeframe, a close below 1.2135 would drag slow stochs into a fresh sell. We will sell a rebound into 1.2205 or 1.2225 that fails. We are less interested in selling a 1.2135 break before a rebound occurs.
After a few successful shorts I'm starting to get more confident again, the pressure towards the support levels rips through the pips above like it was nothing. I'll probably call it a day soon with all the uncertainty looming. edit: releuctant bids when approaching 1.2144 on the december / 1.2150 on the spot. It seems like a tight range for now. (typo - used the 1.22 ... I wish ... ) A thought - how different things would be with Bancor .... [16:11 USD/JPY: Yield Spreads On USD v. JPY Providing Little Direction] San Francisco, September 15th: One factor seen contributing to the ongoing range-trading in USD/JPY is the similar range trading in US yield spreads against JGBs in the ten year part of the curve. Since July 1st, the spread has been contained in a range around 260bp to 280bp. The spread is 270bp today, and well within that range, limiting any break out of the broad 108-112 range and the narrower 109-110.50 range that continues to contain trading. The Nikkei reports today that BOJ officials are still intent on maintaining easy monetary policy for the coming months as signs of a slow down in Japan emerge, though officials are also still concerned over the "exit Policy" to a tightening stance, when the time comes. USD/JPY trades at 110.26/31 and is still meeting offers ahead of 110.50. [15:48 EUR/USD: Model Funds, Real Money Selling Toward Midday] Boston, September 15: Dealers note steady model fund sales of EUR/USD along with real money selling at the 15:00 GMT fixing. Stops are seen in the 1.2130 area, just below 1.2135, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2030/1.2310 rally. 1.2160 is intraday resistance now on rallies. [15:43 FX Options: Maturity Calendar For Thurs. Sept. 16th- -See 2369 ] San Francisco, September 15th: Strikes due on Thursday include more USD/JPY strikes in the 109-110 region. EUR/JPY strikes at 135 & 137 are due and EUR/USD options at 1.2015 and 1.2300. [15:51 USD/JPY: Offers Remain Ahead of 110.50] San Francisco, September 15th: USD/JPY remains bid at 110.30/36, revisiting the highs seen earlier this morning. Exporter offers and option-related selling is seen ahead of 110.50 and should stall gains with the USD/JPY still in the recent 109-110.50 range. Further selling is seen at 110.80-111.00 from both exporters and option players. Broad USD gains are aiding the rise but JPY is also weaker on the back the higher oil prices today with crude rising above $45 per barrel. The Nikkei fall last night was blamed on the rising oil prices so remains a negative for JPY. USD/JPY trades at 110.36/39 currently. [14:42 EUR/JPY: Slightly Better Bid As Oil Tops $45 per Barrel] San Francisco, September 15th: EUR/JPY is slightly better bid at 134.12 after hovering just at 134.00 or under much of the morning. The rise corresponds with a pop higher in oil prices above $45 per barrel. Oil prices have risen in response to the inventory data released this morning showing a sharp drop in US supply. EUR/JPY offers remain at 134.50 and ahead of the top of the Ichimoku cloud and ahead of the key upward trend line from April.
Good job! I'm not sure either. Probably, it'll be choppy sideways or choppy slight trend up maybe 20-40 pips... Chinook