38Fib is at 7908 for move from 77 to 80 My trading is quite similar - I find probabilities the best this way. Thanks for clarifying what's important in the GBP numbers
I don't know how I trade Forex yet...I will keep an open mind. Forex seems very much fundamental for this Technical Trader... Michael B.
If I could summarise how I trade in 4 lines. Always have orders out through numbers - stops not guaranteed but have a good relationship with broker and get very good fills. The second a figure comes out I take a position. If it fails to move the way I would expect it to I either close it or go the other way as this tends to indicate the market is the wrong way round. When trading on just technicals I will never sell if the rate is above the 20 day exponential moving average on the 30 and 60 minute chart. When a rate is the right side of the ema and it breaks a big technical level i will only consider it truly broken if it has broken it by 11pips. I will then likely go with the break. Anything less than 11 pips I regard as a test and not a break! This is a simplification of my strategy but more often than this any 'bad' trades I have (and we all do!) wont have stuck to these guidleines, for whatever reason.
Thanks for this - I'll digest it carefully. Something that stands out - good relationship with your Broker - instead of seeing them as the enemy rather come to a mutual beneficial relationship - if they have a problem with the way you trade - try and sort out a win-win situation - I think this is where a lot of Traders fail... I still have to do some work here to.
Well, I know most EURUSD traders have been glued to the screen these last minutes ... Surprising slide below stops. [13:09 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1mth Vol Crushed - 12-Month Low Just Below] London, September 15: 1mth implied option volatility has extended its slide from an early-week peak of 9.5/9.7 to a fresh base of 9.0/9.15 last, with spot"s increasing divergence from the 1.2300 exotic barrier level helping weigh (a 1.2000-1.2300 DNT option is in play). Key 1mth support is located at last month"s 12-month low-equaling indication of 8.85/9.1, which was plumbed on August 19. At the back of the curve, the 6mth is 9.95/10.15 last, having reportedly traded at 10.2 pct yesterday. [13:07 EUR/USD: Grinding Through Bids Below 1.2200] Boston, September 15: EUR/USD has dipped below 1.2205 support and is testing bids at 1.2190. A break targets a pullback to 1.2160. The better than expected Empire State survey has dealers reassessing the "soft patch" mentality. A firmer industrial production figure could help firm up that thinking. A 0.4% rise is expected. [12:38 EUR/USD: Modestly Lower After Stronger Empire State Mfg Data] Boston, September 15: EUR/USD tripped stops below 1.2220 on the rebound in the Empire State manufacturing survey, but so far support at 1.2205 is holding fast. More stops are seen below 1.2190. The firmer Empire State data foretells of a firmer Philly Fed and firmer Philly generally leads to firmer ISM. If all this pans out, fears of a US economic soft patch will be allayed. 1.2260 is now resistance on rallies 1.2205 support, followed by 1.2160. [12:53 USD/JPY: Price action settles after earlier swing] London, September 15: USD/JPY has edged up towards the 109.85/90 region after the better than expected ESM numbers but has met a series of exporters offer located in the 109.90/00 region. Spot has since edged back into the 109.70 region, leaving fairly lacklustre price action. This theme is expected to continue at least into the 15GMT NY cut when 109.50 strikes are rolling off. Elsewhere, the earlier rally from 109.35 up to 109.70 was confirmed as a large buy order from an oil account out of Tokyo. The order was apparently distributed among a variety of names, prompting some intervention jitters as Tokyo names were seen in the market. However, this is highly unlikely with largely stable and orderly price action.
Yeah - look out below. Dollar rallies on weaker than expected Ind. Prod. Range is King - so it seems Chinook - you trading?
I'm trading. I'm in a little shock because EurUsd went down as I wrote here last night. It was just a hunch anyway. I made some overnight gains but closed the trade before 8:30 am this morning. Then EurUsd tanked much more of course and I got pissed. I got into couple of longs--revenge trading. It' s so though to erase the previous trade from memory. Chinook
Yup I remember you saying you were shorting overnight - hard luck although having an open position before the news is risky... I would have done the same EUR en route to 20 again?? - seems like serious deja vu