Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. If you are looking to save on transaction costs you might look in to remote prop trading (using your money with a 100% payout). When looking into a leased seat be sure to check to see if the exchange fees rise over time. I have a friend that leased a seat at CBOT and after a while the fees were so expensive that it was cheaper to borrow the money and buy the seat.
     
    #581     Sep 14, 2004
  2. I believe the advantage of joining a remote prop trading firm would be to save money with CME's new incentive program. But that program is for a limited time. Anyway, IB has a good volume discount and once can add the cheaper Globex fees with a leased seat. I'm not doing high volume. But for someone with IB and more than 4000-5000 Globex transactions a month, leasing a seat might be cost effective. To buy a seat, it's quite expensive $500-600k I think...

    Chinook
     
    #582     Sep 14, 2004
  3. Interesting with the tighter bias in the december contract with regards to the spot EURUSD now that the future is below 1.2260. It goes to show there is a long bias in the future - and they might be a little squeezed right now with the end of EuroFX RTH coming up.
     
    #583     Sep 14, 2004
  4. I'm waiting for the 1.2250 support to break. Then we might see a 20-30 tick slide.

    Chinook
     
    #584     Sep 14, 2004
  5. Perhaps ...

    [18:26 EUR/USD: Steady As She Goes in 40-Pip Range] Boston, September 14: About all that can be said for EUR/USD is that base bids have been raised to 1.2250 this afternoon from 1.2225 this morning. Softish US data was a clear dollar negative but the EUR has its own problems and dealers, having succumbed to too many head-fakes to the topside, remain extremely cautious about buying EUR/USD on strength. Current account jitters are losing clout with dealers (as evidenced by the limited reactions to Friday"s trade data and this morning"s record C/A account) but that could change later in the week. Treasury TIC data is due for release on Thursday, and as always, dealers will scour the data for any signs that foreign appetites for US investments in waning. Until 1.2310/25 is cleared, fireworks are likely to remain few and far between. EUR/USD trades at 1.2260.

    [19:49 GMT September 14] EUR/USD was unable to reclaim the 1.23 handle today despite a run of US economic data that looked like a sure catalyst for a softer dollar. US retail sales fell more than expected in August (-0.3% but an upward revision to July cushioned the blow) while IBD/TIPP consumer sentiment fell and the current account deficit ballooned to over $166 bln. Commercial selling by the ECB helped limit gains while Asian sellers were rumored as well. Asian buyers were seen on dips to 1.2250 during the New York afternoon. Large 1.2300 expiries are noted tomorrow and may help limit any rise much beyond recent highs at 1.2310. Dealers note continued talk of Middle Eastern and Asian offers in the 1.2310/25 zone. They should also help limit dips, as well. Dealers were reluctant to buy EUR/USD strength today owing to the big drop in the ZEW investor confidence measure this morning. Those inhibitions will likely fade however if the price action firms as a hugely USD-bearish bias continues to loom over the market. TIC data on Thursday could be a catalyst if signs emerge of difficulty in the US funding of its current account deficit.

    [18:51 GMT September 14th] [EUR/USD] Bids at 1.2250, 1.2225, & 1.2205; Offers at 1.2310 & 1.2325. Mid East and Asian sellers seen on rallies.

    [19:08 GMT September 14th] [EUR/JPY] Stops at 133.80.

    [18:49 GMT September 14th] [USD/JPY] Small stops at 109.30, 109.20, 109.10 and 109.00 but importer bids remain ahead of 109.00.
     
    #585     Sep 14, 2004
  6. This is kind of weird-- it is just staying couple of pips over 1.2250.
    Maybe it's going down this time...

    This became an obvious support--it has to be taken out. Otherwise it'll be free lunch for the ones who entered a few pips over 1.2250. At least, there should be some kind of spike down and up...

    Chinook
     
    #586     Sep 14, 2004
  7. Gringinho,

    Thanks for the updates. They are really interesting to read.
     
    #587     Sep 14, 2004
  8. Could it be because of the time? Lower volume. Excuse me for my novice statements. I am NOT new to trading, but new to Forex. I find Forex trends stronger and while staying in a range at the same time. I also have noted when the pairs move on news they really move!

    I am a technical trader learning the nuances of Forex and surprised at how they are Fundamentally driven by news/events/poltics...

    Michael B.


     
    #588     Sep 14, 2004
  9. Ebo

    Ebo

    Chinook:

    This journal is truly the most sincere thread on ET. Keep up the good work!


    ebo
     
    #589     Sep 14, 2004
  10. I'm new to FX too. I don't think we're seeing anything new here except wider intraday ranges. The game is still the same. Everybody predicts something, try to tie the loose ends with news/events/politics. I don't even look at the data after the news announcements. Charts are telling us everything.
    Just think about it: a number comes out too weak and USD starts tanking. But for some reason the Saudi king wants to buy USD (maybe for hedging oil etc...) and puts in $billions of buy order into the market. The downwards spike turns into an upwards one and keeps going up all they long. Then people will try to explain the action looking at the day's event. All these markets are interconnected, at least for me, trying to make sense on a longer time-frame is almost useless.

    Chinook
     
    #590     Sep 14, 2004