Would this be Jack Crooks, from Blackswancapital? (mentioned earlier in this thread) If so, I read the last 10 newsletters he has online. His charting is OK, but I'm a bit disappointed by his "interpretation" of "funnymentals". I know that in the world of the stockmarket, being a complete casino, as players try to gun eachother's positions, anything can happen and probably will, with regard to valuations. TZOO and TOL can go to $200 etc. Who cares? Nobody besides those who are professionally involved in the game. But the currency markets still have a (weak) link to the everyday realities of our life and funnymentals. So, if this fellow suggests that the double deficits of US can be remedied by a stronger (!!!) dollar, then one has to explain to me how the US consumers will get their hands on those dollars. If he means to say that various CBs will be trying to beat eachother in competitive devaluation of their respective currencies and US Federal Reserve was the "least destructive" one, then yes. Although this hasn't been the case in recent years (Fed has talked tough but acted loose).
Ivanovich, on what timeframe do you trade? do you look at the long term trend to hold on to your position?
First of all, I meant today's Jack - the 10 reads on his website are delayed (though I don't know how old). And he certainly does not suggest that the double deficits can be solved by a weaker dollar. In fact, he mentions otherwise in many cases. I wish I had the time to explain further, but I'm off to a meeting. Perhaps when I get back this afternoon, I'll have more time to fully explain. But you need to read him again, my friend.
I have two distinct types of trades. Ones I consider in for the "long haul" and intradays. Of course I look at the trend. Argh...I wish I had time to explain this stuff. I'll set aside an hour after today's meeting. Cheers.
How much emphasis do you guys give yield differential for a trade? It would seem you'd need to have very long term trading horizons for that factor to be even a consideration as to whether or not to put on or hold a position, given the volatility of currencies (esp those which have highest rates). I see people saying they're doing this or that because of the added yield they are getting for "holding", but the reward of a 1/2 pip a day or whatever seems inconsequential given the risk.
Even though chinook doesn't post much anymore, I'll have to say his thread was one of the few fx journals that stayed honest and never degraded into showmanship or other bs (yes, people actually get stopped out here ). Glad to see you're back posting, looking forward to your thoughts. Pretty amazing turnaround today in EUR, as far as I could see there was no immediate catalyst for reversal but treasuries made same u-turn as well. Any ideas where a decent place to put a protective stop would be on a move like this if one were long? I kept telling myself not to look at the screen but just to hold as long as I can, so just set stop to breakeven and left it alone -- but still, I can't think of any good place to adjust it higher other than arbitrary lock-in.
Thanks for the kind words. I agree about the thread. If you are a long-term player, I think 1.18 is a good place now. Shorter-term, I wouldn't think that we should see much below 1.200 again if this is a real bull EUR. I have nothing more important to hold onto as a stop.
Hi TradeYa - yes I have been getting withdrawal symptoms not posting.... welecome back. I'm also sitting long with an average of 2028 - looking to add more circa 1.21 (depending on action at the time) Looking for 1.23+ over the next few weeks. Everyone seems to think 1.2350 is the target so we probably will get a substantial dip from this area once reached although I think the clear out could extened further up...