Ivan, how much do you typically lose, %-wise, of your port when you have a SL like this hit? Either I'm not crazy enough, or this market has gone insane. Are euro-bulls just nuts? Do they LOVE losing money? I may be a bit of a conservative trader but, to me, there is absolutely nothing that warrants going long the euro until it is seen exactly what the limit(less?) of the fallout of the votes will be. Yet here's the market going up 130-points off the bottom! On what?? Caffeine?
I lost very little compared to what I've made this week. This week I actually broke my weekly record, and it's not even over yet. As for the Euro Bulls - it's not Euro Bulls at all. It's profit taking and some oversold unwinding. Happens naturally in any trend. Also some pre-ECB announcement positioning.
Another 100+ up - above 1.24, and things would start to look normal again. Besides, those who got in on around 1.22 lows or even the short dip below "got lucky"; but making money is what it's all about. Caffeine or other drugs aside, the market perception is obviously that levels are quite low now. That's psychology that matters, right ?
I don't know if I'd agree with your statement on market perception. Just like when in December people were saying the Euro was "quite high" at the old record of 1.29 and change.
wow, so you're saying we're in a full-blown euro-bear market and any price upswings are results of massive TPs by euro-shorters?
I thought so once, that the USD was too strong for anyone in their right mind to buy... but that was about 100-tics up. what do we got here, massive psychology-opposites battling it out? or is this just strictly a players' market?
I'm saying any buyers of Euro at this point are either: 1. Taking profit on shorts 2. Central Banks diversifying at an attractive rate 3. Buyers who are attempting an intraday bounce or RSI ride 4. Hedge funds 5. Folks who are playing long term Reshorted at 1.2280
I'm short at 1.2265 currently. I was short at 1.2450 and 1.2360 and then again 1.2336 and 1.2306. Took some profits at various levels on some of them mainly due to passing my psychological tp and then due to a bounce that passed my psychological stop loss. Net result is that I am up quite a few pips up so far, BUT the later positions that I added as a long position to try to collect the swing back (the strong upswing made me think shorts were taking profits) and being a halfwit and completely new to forex (these have been my first trades lol) I ended up trading a larger lot, falling asleep when it went against me and losing more than I made in real terms. Doh, what an idiot! Your opinion guys, do you think this one needs to be waited out a day or so for it to drop again (it spiked due to improved figures in EU but relaxed again)? Or do you think this position will go through some pain before gain and needs to be held over the weekend? Whats the consensus on the upcoming NFP? What do you guys do, wait through the tidal wave, whatever direction it goes, or do you close position and reopen when it settles? ps. thanks in advance, your comments on this thread have been very educational
My take - and that of Thompson - is that we'll see the downtrend resume soon - we just need a catalyst. It could be Trichet's speech in 45 minutes, it could be tomorrow's NFP or the weekend. Overall trend is down for the EUR. There are very little reasons, both from a fundamental and technical point of view to buy Euros. But, the number is in a dangerous zone - where it could stabilize long enough to allow people to find a reason to buy Euros. I'm holding my 1.2282 for a while, will close it when 1.2230 comes under fire, unless there is a decisive break. In that case, I'll hold it until 1.2175ish.