well, that's it, I killed my long euro trade. my trading philosophy is, if something radical happens while in a trade, contrary to your direction, cut your losses. I never had to do that until now. this euro may go to toast, and it ain't gunna take me with it. 5% of my port up in smoke. so, see, I DO cut my losses (when it warrants it) in extreme cases. The euro imploding is an extreme case. now, excuse me, I think I'm going to go throw up.
Yes, but markets like to exaggerate into where hurt turns into desperation - to paraphrase things. Like mtzianos said, there are good things about european economy when compared to US economy - for the long run. Like has been pointed out before - the EU is in it's bottom phase - with slow growth and weak markets, while the US is still lingering around it's highs. The EU is still the world's largest trading bloc - but of course political issues make the shorter term agenda here, however populist they might be. If we ever see the touted China-India trading bloc forming - then I'd be a little more worried also for the sake of the EU. That would be around a third of the world's population in one tightly knit market. Here in Brazil China's trade has resulted in the balance of 350% rise in trade surplus for the brazilians. Still with newfound trade barriers on lingerie and other cotton-based clothing products heavily subsidized in the US, and now with tariffs on chinese produced g-strings, I see things going in the general favorable direction of both the asian and european economies. Markets do their thing, and play out strong moves - just like the recent rise to 1.34 which was a little of a surprise to me, but still it went into the previous range again. We will see 1.30 again in not so long. Remember the oil price-pressure is all about the autumn. That will hurt some - and then some for the consumers. The USD is unlikely to burden that pressure in my opinion. Just finished 5200+ pages of tax return. I'm glad I can do some programming and produce some pretty nifty PDF-documents, but it was sure some long nights of late. There are many facets to being a scalper I guess. Just now I'm doing some VoIP project that I have a great interest in (been my specialization throughout my professional career). I just gotta glee when I think about the inclusion of WiFi on the coming cell-phone models (and some recent ones), and the SIP VoIP capabilities. That is sure going to be noticed by the telecom-operators. So get that broadband tsunami-warning going already ... Good idea to get out of a balanced EUR-USD funding status and into a stronger EUR bias again I think, although it will do a trading range for some months to come still with political referendums in the EU. Having a muslim nation outnumbering Germany in the EU right now is not what's on people's fancy-list for the moment, so that's kind of a no-brainer when wearing the populist hat. People aren't ready for that yet, they aren't that insensitized to other issues than the economy yet.
dude, wtf? what kind of time frame you talking about here? 20 years? I want to trade a short to medium range band, make money and get flat for the next round of blood-letting. I appreciate your quasi-style view of intercomponentary relations between oil, third world population, cotton-based clothing products, politics, euro and the dollar but remember, all things are relative. especially the part of putting money back in my account on a daily and weekly basis. best regards, and try setting a TP within a 10-year time frame. Saham, the 5% loser
Sure, been a while since I posted regularly here; but I like to think that my trading was more about scalping for 3s - 10 mins. When it comes to my bias it is based on seasonal, or shorter timeframes. When trading actively I have more of a weekly and daily bias. For the next squeeze on the USD I reckon next fall and winter will be the right time. For now it seems we might have a "sell in may, and go away" start to the summer. ... and do take the money and run - that always works for me too.
Welcome back Gringinho. This ride down has been a wild one - an interesting quote from Mizuho bank - "...wait until you see âthe whites of their eyesâ." I think we are getting close this point - I never got the opportunity to reshort although I closed down my long standing shorts and do expect a bounce within the next few days. I do feel we will more than likely see 1.17 than 1.30 within the next few weeks after a bounce to circa 1.25-26. Things are currently feeling very overextended... lets see what NFP and the pre-positioning brings us.
CS - read yesterday's Jack. I reshorted at 1.2240 with a 1.2285 stop. Everyone is just now getting behind the EUR fall. We've got a few hundred pips left in this fall. I agree with your synopsis on the 1.17ish range. Just keep stops tight.
Hi Ivan - Yup picking an interim bottom is always a dangerous exercise. With NFP looming things could get interesting based on the ranges of the last few days. I'm long for the short term with stop at entry. I'll be surprised if there is strong USD buying before NFP. Good luck.
Short to medium term is obviously down, but this bounce is getting close to my stop. If it hits, oh well. That's the way the cookie crumbles.