I'm not sure that I'd short it now, but the 4h chart is showing some compelling reasons to do so: The 12:00pm candle is a doji, and the candle currently forming is showing as a shooting star. With stochastics heavily overbought and momentum appearing to be fading, could be ready to move down. Whether it'll be a lasting move, I have no idea. I tend to think the market is anticipating further poor US econ data on Friday and that (in my opinion) throws a wrinkle into things.
On the otherside, 1.2150 area showed good support so far. My only prediction is that 1.2175 area will be the attractor for the next 2-3 hours. Chinook
Could go either way. Technically, I'd say down because the weekly trend is still down; the upmove thus far hasn't really made a dent in that picture. Fundamentally, it gets muddied because I think it's clear the market is expecting poor data, but it's almost like no one wants to act on it until the news comes out. Maybe because they don't feel the Euro is any real prize either? I'm not real sure. What I do know is I'll stick to the "simple" setups at this point in time.
Hey Chinook - this used to be my favourite thread to peruse through - have you stopped mumbling/trading?
It's been slow last couple of days. Unfortunately, I'll miss the NFP action tomorrow, I'll be away for a long weekend. I should be back in full speed this coming Tuesday. Happy trading, Chinook
Yup - the market has been dead - although all that deadness will no doubt be erased later today.... Have a good one.
I think that FX trading is going to start picking up now that the holidays are behind us and the summer is unofficially over. I think that we remain at a critical juncture for the dollar. I am still loaded to the hilt with EURs however, I remain flexible as frankly to be honest, the dollar trades very strong. If EUR has another assault below 1.2000 I do not think that it will hold this time. GBP is weakening and the overall dollar index has had some damage done to the downtrend. Mind you, while I am still trading the dollar from the short side and I intend to until proven otherwise, I believe that we are going to see some fireworks soon (either the dollar is going to resume it's downtrend and fall precipitiously or massive dollar buying is going to come in on sustained dollar strength. I suppose that I am saying to expect Vol. to pick up here. Anyone have any thoughts on EUR (or other $) Vol.? I don't trade options frequently, however, I imagine vols have to be pretty low and probably a good buy here. Thoughts? Riskarb?
I don't follow the options much but I would think that we have to get some more volatility in the Euro shortly given that we have been range bound for so long. I've been short cable for about a week and a half; it's acting much heavier than the Euro. I'm looking for 174.81 but may take profits if the euro can't get and stay below the 1.20 area. Anyhow it's been a nice change to daytrading: less stress and less time consuming and rather like being on vacation.
I cannot believe this lack of volatility in the currency markets. I certainly hope that things pick up. This is ridiculous, the EUR has been in a 3 tick range for the last 5 hours. Incredible.