Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

i got stopped out on my EUR/USD long too.

 

Closed trade at 1.2936 for about 54 ticks of profit. Thomsom claims there's an Eastern Euro CB camped at 1.2930

 

I don't like the way EUR trades. Spending too much time here at trendline support in my opinion. I just looked at the $/Yen chart from Oct. 1998 prior to the 20+ figure down move in $/Yen and it looks scarily similar. It just doesn't smell right EUR, i might sell a big downside breakout if it materializes (below 1.2700).

 

N-

Agree wholeheartedly on the EUR thing. That's why I didn't want to go long EUR. As for yen, gonna check out what you're talking about now.

Thanks.

-I

 

Hmmm...not sure I follow you. I attached the Yen chart. Pls explain.

Are you saying we could be seeing a setup to drop the USD 20 or so yen? Or the other way around?

No way the BoJ will let a 20 point strengthen come.

 

Ivan,

I have to agree with you on the JPY.
Not sure how TradeYa1 see that one.
I wish that I had executed my new plan on yesterday.
I lost about 60 pips yesterday or so it felt like.
I think that I used a little too much leverage.
Won't make that mistake again.

 

And that job number will pretty much put a nail in the coffin for a while on the EUR, Neal. Hope you liquidated your longs. Glad I'm nice and short.

-Ivan

 

Yep, 200 day MA has just been broken (last time was September of last year).

 

yup.
thats why i love trading. you always have the ability to correct yourself when you are wrong.

 

I went in with no position and am unbiased at the moment. I still have no position but will sell a downside break (to get short EUR) but not as willing to go long anymore. As for Yen, what I meant was really pertaining to the chart as an analog to current EUR. Meaning that we had a large trend in Yen ($/Yen to the upside), a big retracement to trendline support in early Oct. '98 (hard to tell your chart is too condensed, like to see June '97-Dec. 99), spent a lot of time hovering around trendline support with the big macro players heavily long $'s/short Yen playing the carry trade (similar to the positioning now, Buffet, Gates, etc.) and we ultimately crashed through trendline support in 2 days, 20+ big figures. Not necessarily predicting this to happen in EUR, however, all I'm saying is that the price action reminds me of the time just prior to Yen cracking the most in history in one-day. I might be nuts.