EUR going to try and get through 1.2200 this morning (NY time). Hope to see it do it. If it keeps pulling back from that level, we may see traders give up and start reversing here. PH
Popping the lid at 1.2200 is quite possible. The pullback overnight was shallow and down to round 50s. Chinook
I don't bet. I trade multiple time frames depending on my data. Intraday multi-day reversal patterns (20-30 days) are always my favorite. I also like the long-term trend as established by daily and weekly data. My data on most asset classes goes back to 1980. When considering a trade because I have an idea or there is a macro theme developing, before I lay on any position, I examine all time frames on the technicals and use either the short term time frame, or all time frames, as my timing edge to get an optimum entry price. Also, it all depends on the market as well. Although I don't use technicals as primary reasons to put on a trade initially, I do use technicals to manage a position while the primary non-technical reason remains valid. And I also use technicals to alert me when that primary reason may be changing, so I start doing extensive research. Whatever "tool" I use to trade, I've spent the past 12 years studying that tool as extensive as I can. I read so much, all the time, that it could be considered "OCD", but I guess it's a good thing, no? IMHO, one needs to be aware of all time frames such that they are aware of potential pivots in the market that don't come as a surprise. There are several economic/business cycles that have varying time spans, as Schumpeter likes to say, that each time frame is a reflection of those various cycles like Kondratief for example, which is extremely long-term (multiple decades). Why shouldn't one sell and take profits in a long-term trade that's not done yet because he feels it's about to hit a major level on short-term or intermediate time frames, or make a counter-trend move like a multi-day reversal that forms on an intraday chart over 25 days? Taking profits and re-establishing at better prices is always the best feeling, but I'm willing to pay up if I got out and it didn't reverse, and will simply consider the higher cost as a small insurance policy. Either way, it's an effective strategy for me. I don't think this is the "holy grail", nor that I'm anything but a never-ending student of the market, and there are others on this board that I have tremendous respect for like trade-ya1, who is willing to take large positions and employ risk discipline only seen in the most skilled traders. Sorry for the long answer version. Lastly, regarding our present topic of the EUR/USD, I feel the EUR has topped and is now in a defined downtrend and setting up for an initial move to 1.1600. But I'm probably wrong as there are others that disagree with me and I'm sure they have much more knowledge than I. Best, Pejman Hamidi "The Rookie"
Pejman, It sounds like you're a long term trader with a more fundamental side than technical. I used the term "betting" since in a way we're all professional gamblers and successful traders have a positive edge. Although fundamentals eventually drive the markets over the long term, I believe that one can capitalize on short-term over/under reactions (what I like to call madness) in the markets. But at the end, we all agree that everything boils down to proper position management. By the way, crude oil's trying to spike up again. Chinook
I wouldn't categorize myself as any type of trader with regards to time frames. It all depends on the asset class, the trade, the idea, the environment, etc.. For example, regarding equities, in the present range bound environment, a "long-term" strategy would be futile, if not foolish. Regarding Crude, a snap-back after that sell-off isn't surprising. I bet the upside in this rally is around 44.80, then another pullback to test the recent low of 41.30, or even the primary uptrend around 38.75-39.75. That reversal bar on 8/20 is quite compelling, and the fundamental picture could be changing. I don't trade the Energy Markets. Too big and volatile for me. Only for the big bad boys. PH
Well at least, it doesn't sound like you're a scalper like most people here If crude oil is going to tank, I expect it to make a double top at around $49-50 first. I think "madness" is driving the crude oil. By the way, you can trade the e-mini crude-oil Chinook
No, I definately don't scalp and never daytrade. Re. Crude, do you mean double "top"? Re: emini's, I'm aware of the minis, but again, the energy market is something that is best left to those in the flow of information, not us little folk with no edge. PH
First, I got disappointed by missing this move. ES was tanking too so I realized that it should be news related and this usually produces overreactions. Once ES started recovering I shorted around 1.2210, waiting it to pullback to 1.2175-80 area. Otherwise, I'll cover around 1.2203 area. Chinook