Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Discussion in 'Forex' started by chinook, Aug 16, 2004.

  1. Yes, it will. The market is still pushing short on the Euro. Fed speeches keep preaching interest rate hikes.
     
    #3581     Apr 27, 2005
  2. do you really believe that tommorows report has that much weight on the current mkt?
     
    #3582     Apr 27, 2005
  3. The EUR weakness is all about massive EUR/YEN selling in anticipation of action by China. I switched my longs to Yen for the time being.
     
    #3583     Apr 27, 2005
  4. so far i only see strength in the USD/CHF and the USD/CAD?
    especially the USD/CAD. I missed that one. However, the USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD all show weakness. :confused:
     
    #3584     Apr 27, 2005
  5. I trimmed half of my rather large short from 1.3080 and closed it at 1.2920 to hedge against event risk of the GDP number. Felt good taking 160 pips, even if it was only half the trade.

    I think the EUR/JPY was definitely part of it. But I also think the reval talk is being hyped too much. It's going to take far more pressure for China to reval, at this stage in the game.

    Check out more Jack:

    http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/ba6faa6f1917c59/bsccc042705.pdf
     
    #3585     Apr 28, 2005
  6. Talking heads: "we are hearing reports that an estimated 1 bil of 1 year 1.1000 EUR put/USD call options have traded"

    Also, a few days ago some euro traded 1 bil of one month 1.2200 put options.

    Must be betting on a french no vote. That would be a huge move, fast! :D
     
    #3586     Apr 28, 2005
  7. It's not just the French. People are beginning to read the tea leaves.
     
    #3587     Apr 28, 2005
  8. Cashed out all of my short EUR positions - 200 pip profit on one half, 180 or so on the other. I originally had a target of 1.2815, but something about this weekend told me to cash out.

    I continue to maintain that we'll be seeing the EUR drop because of perceived Fed action. But I'm out until the EUR breaks the 1.2775-95 area, or EUR rises to a point worthy of selling again.
     
    #3588     May 1, 2005
  9. Bad move.
     
    #3589     May 1, 2005
  10. Not quite sure why you are cashing out? Maybe you can expand... there is some major event risk this week ahead although EUR is definitely trading with a weaker bias.

    I'm thinking 1.28 is going to be tested and I'm backing a break en route to circa 1.25

    Good luck
     
    #3590     May 1, 2005