Hi Gringinho - good to see you are still alive and kicking - the thread has died somewhat after your exit and Chinooks... still trading I hope? Nope I am hanging on gritting my teeth and quite dumbfounded at the resilience! I am playing it both ways but expected a deeper correction in the shorter term - possibly down to 1.30. I've got a feeling there will be some stop hunting 1.3230 ish tonight or Monday morning then possibly a continuation down in light of NFP on the horizon. Although as you say the current action definitely has a one sided feel about it....
Hi guys, I'm still monitoring this thread. I got busy with coding the control software for IB API. I stopped system trading FX futures for now since it only traded during the US session. I'm monitoring my sytem on Euro, BP and Yen futures. I'll revise the system so it also trades the European session. I'm currently sytem/auto trading ER2 and GE(Eurodollar). I'll add NQ and FX futures after a while.
Hi Chinook, Good to see you are still around! How is the auto trading going - I suppose alot less stress! Do you miss the discretionary calls at all and since you have done both now it would be useful to hear your experiences.
csaunders, Actually, it's just the opposite. I can say that I have only 10% of the stress relative to discretionary trading. There are no could have, should haves and self beating with auto trading. This way also I am much more consistent. Also, there's no overtrading. Eventually, I'll start trading more markets--something almost impossible to do with discretionary trading (at least for me). I fire up the programs in the morning and start auto-trading. During the trading day, I do research on the new markets, add new features to my control program, test systems or just browse the internet. I highly recommend the same to you if you can express your system mathematically. You'll be surprised to see what you get when you start backtesting it. It also helps if you start thinking in terms of a portfolio. Every market has its own characteristic "waves" or fluctuations. If I can grab some fluctuation from each market that I trade and limit my losses then I'll have a smooth equity curve. I don't have to worry about the outcome of a trade or P/L of a day.
Apologies for the delayed reply - my ADSL was capped after reaching the 3GIG limit. Glad to hear the auto-trading is going well. How would you compare your returns to discretionary trading - is your equity curve going up more consistently or slower over the long run? What time-frame are you trading auto style - still short term? I've thought of trying auto-trading although it just does not appeal to me - and funnily enough I have a developer background so go figure! I have recently tried longer term trading and working quite well in the current trending scenario. I also find the longer term frames alot less stressfull than those pressured minute trades.
csaunders, The equity curve is smoother. I'm not having these occasional big drawdown days anymore. As I start trading more products, the equity curve should get smoother. The system stops trading after certain loss/day. I'm still trading intraday. As you mentioned, watching the ticks go by all day long was very stressful.
I have a feeling we might be seeing the beginnings of the final upleg in the Euro. 1.30 got taken out, stopping out the weaker longs with a washout down to the high 1.20s. Now they are out, we are set for a continuation of the long-term trend. I see a move up to 1.40-1.42, then a pullback perhaps to the previous high around 1.36, then a move up beyond 1.45. My best guess is that 1.47-48 will be a major multi-year high in the Euro, or possibly 1.52-55 on a worst case. The dollar will then rally back to 1.10-1.16 within the following 12 months.
Yes, especially the insanity episodes completely vanished--So I can focus my mental energy for more fun things like ladies (especially the younger ones)