Of course necklines must be broken, and the appropriate way to trade these is after a test of the neckline following a breakout. Aggressive traders that may have a macro reason will use the area of the first shoulder to initiate 20% or so of their position, in case they're right, and their cost basis is much much lower that way, and the risk is minimal, and they help the shoulder form a bit. The UDX future trades somewhat thin anyway. Pejman Hamidi "The Rookie"
In no way am I doing all of this to attempt to disprove trade-ya 1 in anyway. The truth is that out of total admiration and respect for him, I want to give him evidence that may help him in his analysis, and if there is going to be a move to 1.1600 in the EUR, I would rather see him make $$ than lose Euros. With Respect, Pejman Hamidi "The Rookie"
Trading is not about being right or wrong. You can be wrong 90% of the time but still make money at the end. If you employ good money management and not become obsessed with your positions you can make money. I applaud trade-ya1 that he posts here about both his winning an losing positions. He used to post how much he made when Eur/$ was running up. Now he admits that he made a mistake by posting his losing trades. He says he might start shorting Eur/$ if it goes below a certain threshold. He is not obsessed by his positions. He is a REAL trader. Chinook
This week was a losing week for me. I ended up overtrading and getting chopped most of the time. I missed several smooth trending moves. I somehow feel like I lost my mental flexibility. And perhaps this is due to fatigue. I need to get more sleep and reduce the time I spend looking at charts during the week. Chinook
ElectricSavant, I don't have any open positions now. Sometimes I have open positions between sessions but that's usually rare (this week was an exception). I am going after 30-40 pips intraday swings. I trade only EUR/$ futures--I don't have a retail FX account. I used to trade ES/NQ. I still watch them and I'm waiting for the daily ranges to pick up maybe after summer. Chinook
Yeah, Same here... I miss the futures and still trade them occasionally and am hoping for their ranges to return. I trade other pairs too, but with Retail Forex at Oanda. I find that these three act independently from each other: EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, USD/JPY Michael B.
Right now I just want to concentrate on one pair. Actually, I'm just trying to find my mental balance. I don't have very rigid trading rules. I used to have rigid rules and it doesn't work for me. You know the market is always there doing some kind of fluctuations. It just depends on my mental state if I'll make any money out of it. I always find entries easy. Taking reasonable small losses are little bit harder. But taking profits is the hardest for me. Chinook
I'm not really sure if finding non-correlated pairs is really necessary. Also, over what time frame is the data showing those three pairs to move independently of each other? I'm just curious if it's a long-term relationship or short term (i.e. years vs. months). For what it's worth, from my admittedly very limited experience, the currency markets seem to move in cycles where there will be one or two (maybe more?) "favored" currencies. For example, now it seems the Yen is being pursued rather aggresively in most cases. Now, I have no idea if it's valid; it's merely something I've noticed.
I can appreciate what you are doing Chinook. For me, I find that I MUST be right when trading one pair, unless I am scaling in or out... With three, one of them one is usually winning, and I can sometimes basket trade myself out of a loss. I trade defensivly. By diversifying, I can extract some profit out of the market and keep the equity curve smoothly sloping up. Now I am not a super star trader like some of the others, but I am happy with 5% per 30 day period. Some of the Superstars are able to calculate the correlations and actually hedge and fade with them against themselves to get profitable, which I do not understand completely. I am told the institutional pros are glued to their Bloomberg Terminals reading news releases... Michael B.