I'm still short E/$. I'm not sure but the spike in oil @10:15 EST might be helping Eur. Right now I gave up most of my profits but I made the decision to hold on to this trade. It's a little game I play in my head. Some days I try to pick bottoms/tops for both entry/exits, but today I made a good entry and sticking with it. So far 1.2350 is the overhead resistance. By the way, I added one more short at 1.2331 during this pullup. Chinook
I heard RICS data (last night my time) for UK housing reflects small increase in house prices which means the interest rate hikes might be nearing the end - so GBP negative. I'm also shorting EUR at this point - waiting for sub 23 then will probably reverse to long. I do't think there are many EUR buyers at this level.
Regarding the GBP, it became weaker after the US data relative to Euro. Maybe coupled with what you mentioned caused a sell-off in GBP. The Euro is kind of doing random walk now. Actually it's forming a triangle, I just noticed. I think it'll stay below 1.2350 today. I'm not sure how much more downside potential it has. This oil rally (intraday) might be helping Euro for now. Chinook
If you look at eurgbp that'll tell you everything...we broke through double and triple tops at .6730 and with models kicking in to buy on this break, gbp has to tank in a declining euro environment...also, eurgbp broke a massive weekly wedge targeting .6800+, the past few days have been a non-event in eurgbp after its initial run up from .6650, but today has been a continuation. As long as violating yesterdays low causing a harami bearish pattern in the GBP...all of these are contributing factors, and you don't need to dig through data to see this.
Thanks. I'm not looking at the crosses, I'll take your word for it So there seems to be both technical and fundamental reasons for the GBP sell-off today. Chinook
I'm around for a little bit. Euro started moving. I couldn't resist myself and shorted at 1.2352. I think I'll get bagged on this trade... Chinook
OK. 1.2360 got tested and bounced back. I loosened my stop from 10 pips to 16. Next stop should be 1.2330 then maybe 1.2310. There are no major news coming out from US today but I think we'll see a big move later today either up or down. For now I'm still betting on the short side, my profit target order is set at 1.2312. Chinook
I ended up collecting my profits too late. I could have made 3x more. Oh well, I decided that Eur/$ will trend down but it didn't. I'm glad that I stuck with my initial decision though. Usually, I find that my initial thoughts are more "predictive" than the thoughts that shape after trying to predict the market by looking at more variables. Perhaps the initial thoughts are coming from subconscience...When there's a market reaction I have less time to process the information so I only end up looking at essentail information--I don't have time to worry about $$$, P/L or the girl I saw at the swimming pool. When I have more time I have, I think ego also enters the picture and tries to shape the trade. For instance, sometimes this can lead to revenge trading. Euro/$ is testing 1.2330...I'm holding the trade since the reversal was asymmetric. 20 pips to my target... Chinook